AUD/EUR

Except for some early week pressures on the Euro (EUR) the currency has risen further against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6140 (1.6290) on broad risk sentiment. Australian jobs data released higher than expectations with an additional 22,000 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pulled the Aussie lower into Friday. The Aussie was already under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish cut but extending declines further on a lack of positive sentiment. Next week’s German and French manufacturing and Services PMI is the focus. On the downside 0.6100 (1.6400) offers decent support for the Aussie.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6134- 0.6244 EURAUD 1.6015- 1.6300

After the ECB confirmed their new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone by restarting fresh quantitative easing, this has been a source of strength for the EUR (EURO) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clawing back losses to trade at 0.6210 (1.6100) at the weekly close. Several ECB members have voiced their displeasure of the QE package saying it’s a mistake. Hopes for fiscal stimulus out of Germany is also favouring the EUR currently. Looking ahead Australian employment figures release Thursday and should boost the AUD with a good result. Price looks to retest key support at 0.6290 (1.5900) based on recent action.

Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.6224 (1.6066)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6240)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5940)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6185-0.6287 (1.5906-1.6167)

After three weeks of declines for the Euro (EUR), versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) to fresh lows of 0.6280 (1.5920) the EUR has bounced back to 0.6205 (1.6115) over the ECB monetary policy announcement last night. As expected, the ECB unveiled new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone including cutting the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The main interest rate remains at zero. The meeting confirmed the restart of fresh quantitative easing in the form of 20B EUR every month starting on the 1st of November 2019. This move comes as a direct reflection on the status of not only poor economic health in the Eurozone but global uncertainty. Further momentum extending to 0.6120 (1.6350) will strengthen the case for further downside bias.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6204 EURAUD 1.6118
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6200- 0.6287 EURAUD 1.5904- 1.6128

The Euro (EUR) has retreated eight days straight against a buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6215 (1.6090) Tuesday. This comes after five weeks of declines for the Aussie on the back of improved risk sentiment. Last week’s RBA announcement left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD. Thursday’s ECB rate announcement and monetary statement holds main focus this week with speculation around how much the new QE program will be. Resistance is seen around 0.6290 (1.5900) with reasonable chances of a retest at this level over the week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6211 (1.6100)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6415)
Support: 0.6090 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6116-0.6231 (1.7794-1.8110)

After five months of declines in the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the Euro (EUR) we should see the week close higher with the Aussie reversing some of these losses. Currently we see the cross trade around 0.6175 (1.6190) mark based on improvement in risk appetite and AUD data impressing over the week. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD.GBP printed back on expectations and Trade Balance was slightly above the 7.2B surplus predicted. Next week we have the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. A cut to -0.50% is priced in as well. The ECB haven’t got much choice as the inflation isn’t likely to pick up any time soon, especially given the state of the Eurozone and more importantly the world economic outlook. We suggest a retest of 1.6320 in the coming weeks as global risks are skewed to the downside.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6172 EURAUD 1.6202
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6116- 0.6189 EURAUD 1.61570- 1.6350

After nearly three months of downtrends in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross these moves are looking exhausted. Price today is trading around 0.61130 (1.6320) after the Aussie recovered Friday from 0.6080 (1.6450) mainly due to poor building approvals for July at -9.7% from the 0.0% expected took the Aussie lower, this was after poor construction work done figures earlier in the week. What’s interesting Australian House prices look to have bottomed with figures showing a pick up of 0.8% in August as buyers came back into the market. The Euro calendar is bare this week with the cross to get its shifts from today’s RBA cash rate announcement and monetary statement. Later also quarterly GDP and Thursday’s Trade Balance may bring about decent price swings. Resistance sits at 0.6130 (1.6310)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6125 (1.6326)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6061-0.6136 (1.6298-1.6500)

Despite poor Australian economic data this week the Aussie has feared reasonably well against the Euro (EUR) holding up around the 0.6085 (1.6430) area. Construction figures followed by CAPEX results deteriorated. Construction in Australia has worsened with a contraction over the second quarter falling by 3.8%. Building Approvals release today and may reflect further building activity declines. Next week is a busy week of data with Australian Retail Sales the RBA cash rate and key second quarter GDP. There are no expectations of the RBA to cut rates lower than the current 1.0% for now until November.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6072 EURAUD 1.6469
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5995- 0.6112 EURAUD 1.6360- 1.6678

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sharply lower off the weekly open against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5995 (1.6680) before bouncing higher through Tuesday back to 0.6105 (1.6380) as risk sentiment improved. With the ECB looking to increase easing we have seen windows of EUR weakness over the past four weeks or so. As long as risk flows support the AUD we should see price move towards 0.6200 (1.6120) over the coming few weeks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6099 (1.6395)
Resistance: 0.6125 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6025 (1.6330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5996-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6678)

In line with other crosses the Australian dollar (AUD) has also slid lower against the Euro (EUR), currently trading at 0.6098 (1.6400) after a high of 0.6132 earlier in the week. With the ECB set to ramp up easing measures the race is on as to who jumps first the ECB or RBA. We look for AUD weakness on this cross.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6094 EURAUD 1.64085
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6090 – 0.6132 EURAUD 1.6309 – 1.6420

Following on from talk of a possible third quarter Germany recession after figures posted showed a decline in GDP in the second quarter markets have consolidated around 0.6110 (1.6370) with the Australian Dollar (AUD) looking stable post last week’s employment figures. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. Today’s 1.30 NZT RBA minutes holds market focus with investors saying we won’t get much of a surprise to recent easing bias with the central bank remaining in monitoring status for now. With recent deterioration in the trade was we expect more of the same comments.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6096 (1.6404)
Resistance: 0.6160 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6240)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6018-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6618)

The Euro (EUR) took on water Wednesday after a round of soft data dropping lower to 0.6105 (1.6380) after rallying earlier in the week to 0.6020 (1.6620) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). A contraction in second quarter GDP printed at -0.1% and grew by 0.4% compared to the same quarter in 2018. The figures follow an upside surprise of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 showing the economy is still growing over the first half of the year- Just. These weak figures could suggest we may see a contraction in the third quarter which would put Germany in a recession. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. UK Retail Sales rose unexpectedly to 0.2% based on predictions of -0.3% highlighting consumers were still spending.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6105 EURAUD 1.6380
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6016- 0.6113 EURAUD 1.6356- 1.6622

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a little relief late in the week against the Euro (EUR) returning to 0.6090 (1.6410) from 0.5960 (1.6780) but as the week came to a close the Aussie was back under pressure as risk based assets deteriorated. NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment along with Australian wage data and unemployment will be the focus on the economic docket this week. If risk off markets continue into Friday we could see last week’s low broken and levels somewhere mid 0.59’s develop.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6028 (1.6590)
Resistance: 0.6100 (1.6970)
Support: 0.5960 (1.6400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5957-0.6095 (1.6406-1.6786)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair still sits below pivotal support at a multiyear low Friday of 0.6065 (1.6485). Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 1.5% to 1.0% announcement saw the Aussie dive lower in sympathy to 0.5955 (1.6790) the first time in many years we have seen a price below 0.6000 (1.6665). The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. Eurozone data is thin this week and has generally been well supported in line with an overall risk off tone.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6085 EURAUD 1.6433
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5957- 0.6121 EURAUD 1.6335- 1.6785

The Australian Dollar (AUD) passed 0.6060 (1.6500) heavy support Monday against the Euro (EUR) to enter into multiyear low territory currently trading at 0.6035 (1.6570). In years around currencies I can’t remember ever seeing the AUDEUR trade into the 0.50’s. Today’s RBA interest rate decision holds huge market focus with back to back cuts recently we are not expecting the RBA to go lower on this occasion. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year to be key. There is no press conference after the meeting, which is usually a sign that a no change is in store. Eurozone have nothing of note on the calendar this week and could be well supported in line with a deteriorated risk tone.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6034 (1.6572)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.7000)
Support: 0.6000 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6015-0.6208 (1.6107-1.6624)

Last week’s sharp U turn in price from 0.6290 (1.5900) levels in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair to 0.6130 (1.6310) has been a remarkable shift. Over Thursday’s European trading session price has come from 0.6200 (1.6130). Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy continues to support the EUR this week. GDP in the eurozone continues to grow but not fast enough to meet the ECB’s target of around 1.0% with the ECB expected to ease policy at the September meeting. Australian CPI q/q surprised markets by releasing at 0.6% taking y/y CPI to 1.6% versus the previous 1.5% but we still believe the RBA will cut rates to 0.75% at next week’s RBA meeting. Support of 0.6080 (1.6450) is nearing closer with the last time price was trading at this level was August 2015.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6129-0.6208 EURAUD 1.6106- 1.6314

Last week’s price reversal from the high of 0.6290 (1.5900) has continued into Monday with the Euro (EUR) making all the play against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing price lower to 0.6190 (1.6150). No cut to the fragile EU situation last week sent buyers back into the EUR with Draghi stopping short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come, possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. Aussie quarterly CPI and EU Flash CPI y/y are the focus this week on the calendar and print tomorrow. Short term support for the AUD is 0.6160 (1.6230)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6195 (1.6142)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6230)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6190-0.6292 (1.5893-1.6154)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair swung wildly during the European trading session overnight with the ECB announcement interest rates would remain at record lows for now or at least until early 2020. Price initially went to 0.6280 (1.5920) then a “no-cut” to rates sent positivity through markets sending the EUR to 0.6215 (1.6090) Draghi stopped short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. He went on to say they were researching possibilities of further QE with TLTROs in the picture.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6226 EURAUD 1.6061
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6215- 0.6292 EURAUD 1.5892- 1.6090

Gains in this pair have stalled in recent days, with the Australian dollar (AUD) twice failing to overcome resistance around the 0.6300 area vs the Euro (EUR). This may well be the precursor to a corrective pullback that would target initial support around 0.6235. If we do get a break above 0.6300 then the market would target 0.6350, but it is looking like upside momentum is waning somewhat and at this stage we’re favoring a test of downside support, before the pair attempts another leg higher. The EUR itself has been hampered recently by speculation about potential new stimulus measures to be announced at this week’s ECB meeting. That meeting will be the primary focus for the market and it will drive the pair over the latter stage of this week. Ahead of that meeting we do have a raft of PMI’s from Europe to digest along with a speech from RBA Gov Lowe.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6274 (1.5938)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6038)
Support: 0.6235 (1.5748)
Last Weeks range: 0.5237-0.6291 (1.5894-1.6034)

The AUDEUR rally that started back in late June has continued this week with the pair making fresh cycle highs at 0.6280 in the past 12 hours. The AUD breathed a sigh of relief after yesterday Australian employment data suggested the RBA can take its time in deciding when to cut interest rates again. The gain of 21k full time jobs, and the stable unemployment rate, make it unlikely the RBA will deliver a third successive interest rate cut at their next meeting. There is some resistance around the 0.6300 area, and then again at 0.6350. On the downside initial support is seen at 0.6235. RBA Gov Lowe speaks next week, while from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5941
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6194 – 0.6280 EURAUD 1.5923- 1.6144

Relentless Australian dollar (AUD) gains have been the theme of the past week and against the Euro (EUR) there has been no exception. The pair briefly traded to a low of 0.6161 mid last week, but the bullish AUD move since then has seen an overnight high of 0.6254 trade. The trigger for these AUD gains was a dovish testimony from US Fed Chair Powell, but they have also been helped by solid Chinese activity data released yesterday. Momentum is certainly in the Aussie’s favor at the moment and this move may well have further to run. The market will pay close attention to today’s RBA minutes as well as Thursday’s release of Australian employment data.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6250 (1.6000)
Resistance: 0.6375 (1.6194)
Support: 0.6175 (1.5687)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6161-0.6254 (1.5990-1.6230)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost ground to the Euro (EUR) this week, suffering after some disappointing local consumer sentiment and business confidence data. The pair has manged to stage something of a recovery off the weeks low, at 0.6161, to currently trade at 0.6199, but near term direction is far from certain. Longer term we suspect strong support around 0.6100 should to put a floor under the pair and we suspect further test toward 0.6250 will likely be seen over the coming week or two.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6197 EURAUD 1.6137
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6161 – 0.6236 EURAUD 1.6036 – 1.6230

The Australian dollar (AUD) has been gaining on the Euro (EUR) since late June, and these gains peaked at 0.6231 in the second half of last week. Since then we have seen the pair consolidate just below that high as the market awaits the next move. We increasingly believe that move will be another leg higher for the AUDEUR with a medium term target of 0.6360. Locally, we have Australian Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment to digest of the coming days. Support is seen coming in around 0.6180 and that should contain any potential periods of weakness in the near term.

Exchange Rate
Current LeveL: 0.6214 (1.6092)
Resistance: 0.6240 (1.6181)
Support: 0.6180 (1.6026)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6160-0.6240 (1.6025-1.6235)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) turned lower off the weekly open to 0.6150 (1.6250) after dominating the Euro (EUR) last week. Posting an earlier three week high of 0.6190 (1.6150) the Aussie lost steam after risk markets lost bite. The ceasefire between the US and China has relaxed markets for now but we don’t believe this will continue with tensions to increase. Eurozone Core inflation y/y came in on expectations of 1.2% for June showing a stable release based on May’s 0.8%, this was the catalyst for the Euro to recoup some lost ground. Attention now is with the 4.30pm NZT RBA statement and cash rate release. Market forecasters remain split as to a cut today or if they will leave the benchmark rate in place until August. Those that believe a cut is in store today should consider buying EUR ahead of a possible dip in the currency back to 0.6100 (1.6395) Australian Building Approvals and later Retail Sales prints could reflect moderate shifts to price.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6176 (1.6191)
Resistance: 0.6200 (1.6270)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6140)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6098-0.6194 (1.6145-1.6400)

Just when we thought price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair would continue to drop through 0.6075 (1.6460) and break new ground we have seen fresh support for the Aussie as it peeled back losses from the past 3 weeks to 0.6165 (1.6220). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. With climbing commodity prices and equities, risk related currencies have benefited over the week but this could all change once the G20 meeting starts tonight in Osaka with several key meetings taking place to dent sentiment.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6159 EURAUD 1.6236
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6093- 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217- 1.6412

The Euro (EUR) has managed to find a reasonable amount of support over the past two to three weeks against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it trades at 0.6110 (1.6370). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. Certainly, with recent climbing commodity prices such as iron Ore trading at multi month highs this has fundamentally held up the Aussie from dropping to much dire levels. The G20 meeting in Osaka starting Thursday should give a fair dose of volatility.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6105 (1.6380)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.6450)
Support: 0.6080 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6080-0.6148 (1.6265-1.6448)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded a historical low of 0.6080 (1.6450) against the Euro (EUR) early week before staging a decent come back reversal retracing to 0.6145 (1.6270) ECB’s Mario Draghi speech midweek reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. Aussie Dollar weakness is still in play with reasonable chances we may retest the prior low of 0.6080 (1.6450). As we said earlier in the week- sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6130 EURAUD 1.6313
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6080- 0.6148 EURAUD 1.6264- 1.6447

After falling back to 0.6130 (1.6315) briefly at the weekly close against the Australian Dollar (AUD), the Euro (EUR) has regained its earlier momentum. Pushing into unchartered territory and breaking through massive support at 0.6115 (1.6350) the EUR has gone on to post 0.6105 (1.6380) an August 2015 low. Any downward bias looks slim with a lower low looking more compelling as we look towards the RBA minutes this afternoon. Lowe’s comments later in the week when he speaks on “Labor Markets and Spare Capacity” will impact ahead of key French and German PMI figures. Sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6108 (1.6372)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6102-0.6157 (1.6241-1.6387)

The Euro (EUR) extended gains over the Australian Dollar (AUD) through Thursday to reach a level of 0.6110 (1.6360). Australian unemployment rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. The problem though was most (39,000) fall under the part time category distorting the numbers. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment which has sent the Aussie lower. The question is are the numbers good enough for the RBA to halt a rate cut in July or will they wait until August? We are expecting a downward forecast to GDP as well which should keep the Aussie under the pump. Friday’s price retraced back to 0.6135 (1.6300) more than likely on profit taking.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6122 EURAUD 1.6334
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6112- 0.6194 EURAUD 1.6144- 1.6361

After a choppy week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair hovering around the 0.6200 (1.6120) area the Euro has made a push for new territory off Monday’s open. Currently trading at pivotal support of 0.6150 (1.6250) a yearly low, a break lower looks compelling given the recent lack of support for the Aussie. Holidays in Australia, France and Germany yesterday saw thin market trading in the cross and higher volatility develop. A break below 0.6135 (1.6300) would confirm a fresh leg of downside momentum if data doesn’t impress this week for the AUD. NAB Business Confidence today should give us a better look followed by Thursday’s jobs figures.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6151 (1.6257)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6070)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6147-0.6231 (1.6050-1.6267)

This cross has remained relatively steady this week , albeit with a gradual AUD weakness…opened the week at 0.6225 and drifted lower to around 0.6189 but has staged a mild recovery on weaker EUR data to 0.6205. Most of the AUD negative news is now priced into this cross and any surprise from the ECB announcement tonight is likely to see this cross pressure the EUR back to the 0.6225 level and above. Continuing solid iron ore prices should hold any AUD retreat at the 0.6150 support level.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6203 EURAUD 1.6121
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6188- 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6067- 1.6159

Over the past week, the Australian dollar has started to regain some of the ground lost to the Euro (EUR) since mid-April. While we don’t discount further potential dips in the pair, it does look like the broader AUDEUR down trend, that’s been in place for nearly six weeks, has run out of steam. The Australian Dollar (AUD) still must negotiate its way through next week’s RBA interest rate meeting, and the almost certain cut in interest rates, but that’s is now largely priced into the market, so it shouldn’t cause the AUD to fall out of bed at all. We would suggest any further dips toward support around 0.6150 are a good opportunity for clients looking to convert EUR to AUD.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6210 EURAUD 1.6103
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6177- 0.6219 EURAUD 1.6078- 1.6187

The Euro (EUR) has been rather steady after the European Election results pushing ever so slightly higher against the Australian Dollar over the course of last week’s trading. RBA’s Lowe finally admitted the economy was running as well as predicted especially with a drop in wage numbers and inflationary pressures on the slide. The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate at their 4th June meeting with a possible two further cuts in 2019. The monetary statement will give us more clues to direction in the pair over the rest of the year. Since late April the EUR has had an edge over the depleted Aussie, we are currently trading at 0.6185 (1.6170) just 43 points off the yearly open at 0.6142 (1.6280).

Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.6187 (1.6163)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6153-0.6213 (1.6094-1.6251)

The gapping to 0.6210 (1.6100) on the weekly open the Euro (EUR) has recovered to trade back around 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it eyes last week’s low of 0.6150 (1.6260). Australian Construction numbers fall by 2.4% for the March quarter after expectations of 0.1% showed total construction was well down. This weighed on the Aussie along with the RBA minutes Tuesday reflected weak inflationary pressures, the RBA finally realising after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. The EU elections over the weekend could throw up a few surprises. Britons have been voting which was never expected to happen as they were supposed to be gone by now. With the Aussie underperforming we see a retest of the yearly low of 0.6110 (1.6360) in sight.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6244
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153- 0.6212 EURAUD 1.6096- 1.6251

The AUD has gapped higher on this cross opening the week at 0.6179 , tracked all the way up to 0.6213 before settling back around the 0.6195/0.6200 level on the risk-off tone and jitters ahead of the RBA meeting minutes and RBA Governor Lowe speech later today …with European elections to be held over the next few days we remain mildly AUD positive on this cross but any advance beyond 0.6220 is likely to be weakened by the Aussie rate cut concerns.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6196 (1.6140)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6150-0.6240 (1.6027-1.6260)

The weaker AUD tone has been seen on this cross as even with the EUR softening against the USD the AUD has not held any ground on this cross as concerns about an RBA rate cut , weaker data and election jitters have weighed on the EUR/AUD cross…now at 0.6169 after starting the week at the 0.6230 level next support is around the 0.6130 mark which could come under test next week if the risk-off tone persists….an overall majority for either party (unlikely) in the election result should be AUD supportive.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153 – 0.6248 EURAUD 1.6005 – 1.6252

Punching through the previous yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) this morning against the Euro (EUR) the currency continues to build against a weakened Australian Dollar (AUD). RBA Minutes late last week reiterated the dovish forecast with slower economic growth and inflation to reach the bottom of its band. Unemployment is still propping up any hope left of stability, wage data Thursday will most certainly give us more clues ahead of this weekend’s Australian Elections. Sellers of EUR should be eyeing current prices to sell EUR back into AUD as these levels represent extremely good selling.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6190 (1.6155)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6190)
Support: 0.6175 (1.6060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178-0.6287 (1.5905-1.6187)

The RBA has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5% in what was said to be a neutral statement by governor Lowe. Global outlook remains reasonable with a downside bias. The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher off the release to 1.5920 but was met with a fresh wave of risk off sentiment in the trade was between the US and China. Price retraced through the weekly open to reach 0.6200 (1.6120). The yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) is now in range with current price showing attractive to sellers of EUR.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6238 EURAUD 1.6030
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6203- 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5940- 1.6120

Coming off the high of 0.6377 (1.5680) mid-April the Australian Dollar (AUD) has depreciated three weeks running against the Euro (EUR) to trade at 0.6245 (1.6020) Tuesday. GDP q/q out of Spain and CPI m/m from Germany along with Eurozone CPI y/y boosted the EUR last week with price edging closer the yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150). RBA today at 4.30pm NZT should be a cracker with investors spit as to a cut to 1.25%. We suspect the RBA will play it safe and leave the rate unchanged until later this year, reiterating a “wait and see” style approach.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6242 (1.6020)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6070)
Support: 0.6225 (1.5950)
Last Weeks Range:0.6225-0.6318 (1.5828-1.6063)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed all of last week’s gains trading back to 0.6260 (1.5970) against the preferred Euro (EUR) the AUD underperforming across all major crosses this week. German IFO business sentiment came in weaker than expected denting moral in April showing that Europe’s largest economy is losing momentum. IFO president Clemens said “the German economy continues to lose steam” Spanish Flash GDP said otherwise surprising markets when it printed at 0.7% from 0.6% expected and German prelim m/m CPI also released well at 1.0% from 0.5% markets had forecast. Australian Building approvals prints this afternoon and based on the result may give us a clue as to the mood of the RBA for next week’s Cash rate announcement on Tuesday. The probability of a cut is poised at 50/50 at the moment. Price sits just shy of the six week low of 0.6252 (1.5993) and looks to retest.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6258 EURAUD 1.5979
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6253- 0.6327 EURAUD 1.5805- 1.5991

The Euro (EUR) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for most of the week reaching a low of 0.6265 (1.5960) with quarterly inflation disappointing at 0.0% based on expectations of 0.2% growth weakening the AUD across the board. Rising concerns over the European growth knocked the EUR late in the week with equity markets in Europe falling. The EUR gave back early gains travelling back to 0.6320 (1.5840). Germany has been the stand out performer in the EU block of late but with Germany’s benchmark 10 year government bond yield going below zero the day after disappointing German IFO sentiment survey, this brings a new set of worry to the region. Wednesday market liquidity will be affected with the French, Germany and Italian’s all taking a day off for Labour day.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6299 (1.5875)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.5950)
Support: 0.6270 (1.5850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6266-0.6341 (1.5770-1.5958)

The Euro (EUR) has outperformed the Australian dollar (AUD) over the past week, driving the AUD/EUR cross to a low last night of 0.6318. The pair is now approaching a key area of support just above 0.6300 and reaction here will be interesting. Today’s Australian inflation data may well dictate whether that support holds, or whether it gives way. A soft inflation result is likely to see the AUD under renewed pressure. There are however broad concerns about European growth and recent data has done little to allay those. It seems likely that the Euro itself could easily see periods of increased selling pressure over the coming weeks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5748)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6318-0.6372 (1.5694-1.5828)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) immediately tracked lower off the weekly open to 0.6320 (1.5830) against the Euro (EUR) but has reversed losses Wednesday after support for the Euro diminished as risk tone shifted supporting commodity currencies. Price sits currently at 0.6360 (1.5720) which is 5 clicks away from the yearly high. Thursday’s Aussie employment data holds the attention of investors tomorrow, the RBA are hoping for a release around a 15,000 increase to the workforce. German manufacturing is late Thursday and should reflect a stable sector based on previous supported data.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6346 (1.5758)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.5840)
Support: 0.6315 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6308-0.6364 (1.5712-1.5852)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) remains choppy with the EUR pushing the cross to 0.6310 (1.5850) early Monday. With the RBA shifting its stance to a more neutral outlook, the RBA stopped short of calling for a rate cut in the next central bank meeting and surprisingly the RBA look more balanced now than other central banks which has boosted the Aussie. Data last week in Australian was also positive, US/China trade talks have helped to support the AUD. We are picking a retest of last week’s high of 0.6365 (1.5712). Transferring your AUD into EUR provides attractive levels now with the pair trading at the top of the current band

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.5900)
Support: 0.6290 (1.5750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6298-0.6363

Worse than expected German industrial production and manufacturing data overnight hampered Euro EUR) efforts to extend past 0.6300 (1.5880) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing the cross to 0.6345 (1.5760). Although the RBA statement was dovish earlier in the week (cash rate unchanged at 1.50%) Retail Sales and Trade Balance has boosted the Aussie close to the yearly high of 0.6370 (1.5700) we saw earlier in the week during choppy price action during the RBA announcement. Next week the main focus will be on the ECB refinancing rate and statement, we expect the ECB to keep with the recent dovish theme although the ECB is forecasting a recovery of sorts in the second quarter 2019. Great levels to be buying EUR with current prices where they are.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6339 EURAUD 1.5775
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6297- 0.6364 EURAUD 1.5712- 1.5879

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) surging to 0.6350 (1.5750) a fresh six- week high. 0.6362 (1.5717) is the yearly high from late February as the Aussie looks poised to break this significant resistance level. We could certainly get close this week if tomorrow’s RBA is even a little positive. The RBA signalled only recently they were neutral saying a cut was as good a chance as a hike but with poor recent data (excluding employment) we could see a dovish bias with a rate cut as early as August. Weakness in Eurozone Manufacturing has taken its toll on economic weakness cementing the ECB’s dovish stance and low inflation. Buyers of EUR should consider transferring or buying EUR as we trade at the current high around 0.6350 (1.5750)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6343 (1.5765)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.6100)
Support: 0.6210 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6280-0.6351 (1.8274-1.8731)

Australian jobs numbers took the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher mid last week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6295 (1.5885) before the Euro regained some losses with the cross closing the week at 0.6265 (1.5960). Eurozone manufacturing was a let down with France and German figures producing softer than forecast readings- the lowest since 2012 and the pressure squarely back onto the Euro. Price retraced Friday’s moves back towards the high of 0.6295 (1.5885) currently trading at 0.6285 (1.5906) at the time of writing. Both central banks speak this week otherwise a light calendar.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6289 (1.5900)
Resistance: 0.6320 (1.6070)
Support: 0.6225 (1.5820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6220-0.6294 (1.5888-1.6076)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost ground earlier in the week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6225 (1.6070) but came back strong after Australian Jobs data printed. A small number of jobs (4,600) were added to the workforce, a little light on expectations, but it was the unemployment rate markets focused on coming in at 4.9% from 5.0% which pushed investors away from the EUR with price retracing to 0.6270 (1.5950). We have French and German manufacturing numbers to release tonight. Next week’s calendar for the pair is light.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6257 EURAUD 0.6151
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6220- 0.6281 EURAUD 1.5930- 1.6077

It’s a massive week on the economic docket for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair after nothing printing last week of note left the cross bouncing around 0.6265 (1.5960). RBA Monetary policy minutes from the 5th March meeting release today and should highlight the earlier spiel from governor Lowe of signs the economy is struggling but unemployment will continue to edge lower to 4.75%. We will see if this happens Thursday when the jobs data releases and the unemployment rate. Later in the week German and French manufacturing figures release. The Euro will be boosted by Brexit optimism this week if a deal can be agreed but more predominantly if Aussie jobs data comes in well we could see a retest of the 3 month high of 0.6350 (1.5740) develop.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6261 (1.5971)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6060)
Support:0.6230 (1.5900)
Last Weeks range: 0.6228-0.6291 (1.5895-1.6056)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) and Euro (EUR) are still bouncing around similar levels this week with the cross reaching a low of 0.6228 (1.6056) Thursday. Brexit has occupied headlines especially given we have had no significant data to report this week for the pair. Just Eurozone industrial data was solid benefiting the Euro. Inching towards the yearly low the EUR looks to have the upper hand with detrimental data printing out of Australia of late still weighing down the Aussie. Next week is a full docket of data with Australian jobs data and Euro manufacturing numbers.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6246 EURAUD 1.6010
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6227- 0.6291 EURAUD 1.5894- 1.6057

Risk sentiment improved overnight Tuesday after hopes a last minute concession on Brexit from the EU would allow the UK parliament to vote into law a EU-UK deal. The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved to 0.6285 (1.5910) against the Euro (EUR) from the open of 0.6265 (1.5950) extending last week’s gains and looks to 0.6320 (1.5820) early February resistance levels. All eyes this week will be firmly focused on a Brexit outcome which is lucky because the calendar is dry this week. Last week’s dovish ECB outlook should give the Aussie further fuel to appreciate further.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6269 (1.5951)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6020)
Support: 0.6240 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6203-0.6291 (1.5896-1.6121)

It’s been a big week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair with both central bank overnight rate announcements. Price moved lower to 0.6200 (1.6120) after the RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% with dovish comments surrounding inflation expectations weakening the Aussie. Wednesday’s quarterly GDP was also soft at 0.2% along with Retail Sales as well. A reversal back towards 0.6270 (1.5950) took place as volatility soured after the ECB meeting. The Central Bank left rates unchanged but slashed inflation and growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 turning markets to risk averse across the board. It’s hard to know where direction is now with both Australian and EU countries really starting to struggle. Wage growth remains key for Australia.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6237    EURAUD 1.6033
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6203- 0.6276    EURAUD 1.5932- 1.6121

The Australian Dollar has surprisingly picked up a little momentum after yesterday’s terrible Building Approvals figures against the Euro (EUR) trading off the low of 0.6220 (1.6070) to 0.6280 (1.5980). Building approvals although slightly better than predicted are now down over 28% year on year which is extremely concerning. Soft Business operating profits also put pressure on the Aussie pointing to further downside risks in the currency heading into today’s RBA cash rate announcement. No change is expected from the 1.50% for now but comments by Lowe will be interesting. Later in the week we also have the (ECB) European Central Bank cash rate announcement which will remain at 0.0% as they have nowhere to go, comments will more than likely be dovish based on recent data indicating the economy in the region is slowing.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6253
Resistance: 0.6275 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.5940)
Last Weeks Range: 1.8230-1.8721 (1.582-1.6071)

Yesterday’s surprisingly good Australian Capital Expenditure for the December 2018 quarter printed at 2.0% with Australian business investment rising sharply providing a much needed boost to GDP. The Aussie rallied for a hour on the news before Aussie dollar bears returned taking price to 0.6234 (1.6040). Price momentum could continue to the downside if the trade talks between China and the US were to break down. Progress has been made this week but markets remain nervous. Buyers of Euro should get your cheque books out.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6239   EURAUD 1.6028
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6232- 0.6325   EURAUD 1.5808- 1.6045

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed off last week’s low of 0.6240 (1.6020) to regain most of its losses travelling to 0.6320 (1.5820) Tuesday. Lowe made comment that it was unlikely rates would go up this year as the RBA needed a lift to inflation. He didn’t rule out the possibility of raising the cash rate next year but would be concerned if inflation stayed below the 2-3% band. News of a total ban on Australia coal into China was also quashed by Chinese customs officials, this bought buyers back into AUD. German CPI pints at the end of the week. We expect risk currencies such as the AUD to dominate while the global mood around China/US trade remains positive.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6308 (1.5842)
Resistance: 0.6330 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6243-0.6352 (1.5743-1.6018)

In the past 24 hours of trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair we have seen huge downward pressure develop in the Aussie. Price has dropped from 0.6350 (1.5750) to 0.6240 (1.6020). Aussie Jobs numbers released well up surprising markets, booting the AUD for a while until Westpac Bank decided they wanted to sell AUD and announced that they expect the RBA to cut the cash rate this year in August and November. This started to bring sellers to the market when the Aussie was hit hard again with news that the Chinese had placed a ban of Australian coal imports for 2019. The news particularly bad for the Australian economy as coal is Australia’s biggest export earner. A retest of 0.6120 (1.6350) the multi year low is in jeopardy.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6258   EURAUD 1.5979
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6242- 0.6352   EURAUD 1.5742- 1.6019

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) remains choppy as ever. Last week was the Aussie Dollar’s turn to advance on the EUR with the pair travelling to 0.6330 (1.5800) where it closed. The Euro picked up some support Monday in thin US holiday trading reversing some losses back to 0.6305 (1.5860) This week is a busy one for the cross with French and German manufacturing data to release along with Aussie employment figures. We expect risk to continue this week with price action to return to the high of 0.6330 (1.5800). Friday RBA governor Lowe speaks again, if he continues to paint the Aussie economy in a negative light as has done recently we could see Aussie Dollar weakness.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6298 (1.5878)
Resistance: 0.6330 (1.5980)
Suppor: 0.6290 (1.5800)
(Last Weeks Range: 0.6261-0.6329 (1.5801-1.5973)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fall to 0.6320 (1.5820) Thursday night against the Euro (EUR) as investors chose the risk trade. Overnight German quarterly GDP printed at 0.0% from 0.1% markets were predicting narrowly avoiding a recession as German companies struggle with a weakening global economy based on Trump’s trade dispute with China. A recession is deemed two negative GDP quarters in a row. Germany the biggest country in the Eurozone reported no growth in the last quarter on 2018. The preceding quarters showed positive growth but these latest two quarters highlights a real turnaround.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6281   EURAUD 1.5921
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6250- 0.6321   EURAUD 1.5820- 1.5998

Last week’s hangover from several separate RBA dovish comments could continue to weigh on the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Euro (EUR) already looks to push higher against the under pressure Aussie to 0.6250 (1.6000) Certainly German prelim fourth quarter GDP will help if this comes in positive above 0.1%. Third quarter 2018 was poor with expenditure of households declining. Later in the week assistant RBA governor Kent speaks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6263 (1.5966)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.6060)
Support: 1.6230 (1.5850)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6227-0.6358 (1.5729-1.6059)

Risk currencies took a hit overnight with equity markets coming off large- the Nasdaq is down over 1.5% on the day and the Australian Dollar has tanked across the board this week on general weakness making things worse. Against the Euro (EUR) we have seen price reverse from earlier week moves from 0.6360 (1.5730) to 0.6250 (1.6000) Softer German factory orders should have put pressure on the EUR but hasn’t after figures reported a decline of -0.4% when 0.8% growth was expected. This highlights the pressure the Aussie has on it and will continue have on it as long as the US/China trade situation remains unsolved.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6235    EURAUD 1.6038
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6230- 0.6357    EURAUD 1.5729- 1.6050

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross continues to trade directionless in 2019 with most of the price action between 0.6250 (1.6000) and 0.6360 (1.5720) currently 0.6320 (1.5830) Overnight we did see some Eurozone investor confidence data which showed confidence weakened for the 6th straight month to February falling to -3.7 from -1.5 from January. This week’s RBA cash rate announcement will be in focus today but first at 1.30 NZT we will have Retail Sales for December which is expected to be down on the previous two results for October and November.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6292 (1.5893)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.6030)
Support: 0.6240 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6252-0.6361 (1.5721-1.5996)

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD is lower on this cross now around 0.6275, although the EUR had a bad night on the ECB announcement the AUD was harder hit against the USD and we expect this trend to continue.

Exchange Rate

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6266  EURAUD 1.5959
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6235- 0.6312  EURAUD 1.5842- 1.6037

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD is trading sideways  against the EUR on the back of the softer Eurozone economic data being balanced by the “risk-off” tone and concerns around the ongoing US/China trade war that is holding the AUD hostage….now around 0.6291 we favour a move in this cross towards the 0.6200 support level over the week barring any upset from Thursday’s Aussie employment data.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6294 (1.5888)
Resistance: 0.6340 (1.6150)
Support: 0.6200 (1.5770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6258-0.6340 (1.5773-1.5978)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has eased slightly against the Euro (EUR) this week dropping to 0.6305 (1.5860) continuing last week’s slide from 0.6250 (1.6000) levels. It’s been a quiet week for the EUR with only Brexit really to consider. The global trade war continues to deteriorate manufacturing sectors in the eurozone with lasts weeks industrial production in Italy falling by 1.6% in November and also France dropping by 1.3%. The largest economic powerhouse in the bloc Germany also had deteriorating industrial figures slipping for the third straight month, with the largest three countries in the EU all in trouble and showing signs of weakness a hike this year could be delayed until economic conditions improve. Westpac Consumer Sentiment cane in looking sorry as the mood for a positive 2019 looks to have evaporated. We expect price to retrace towards 0.6130 (1.6300) over the coming week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6311   EURAUD 1.5845
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6254- 0.6335   EURAUD 1.5783- 1.5988

View AUDEUR charts

It’s been a quiet start to the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair trading slightly down on the weekly open of 0.6290 (1.5900) The global trade war continues to deteriorate manufacturing sectors in the eurozone with lasts weeks industrial production in Italy falling by 1.6% in November and also France dropping by 1.3%. The largest economic powerhouse in the bloc Germany also had deteriorating industrial figures slipping for the third straight month, With the largest three countries in the EU all in trouble and showing signs of weakness a hike this year could be delayed until economic conditions improve. Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence releases tomorrow – apart from this the calendar looks sparse this week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6279 (1.5926)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.6150)
Support: 0.6195 (1.5850)
Last Weeks range: 0.6191-0.6296 (1.5884-1.6153)

View AUDEUR charts

Last week’s shock sales forecast by Apple sent markets into a flurry of activity with the Euro (EUR) extending its pre late 2018 rally into 2019 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) with price travelling to 0.5950 (1.6800). Price retraced back to 0.6110 (1.6370) just as quick with the Aussie back in favour after positive rhetoric from Fed reserve Powell. With Trump speaking later today at the Southern Border on the government shutdown and his wall build we could witness the first non-war related “state of emergency” in the US government which could send investors back buying safe haven assets. This being said we favour a retest of early December levels around 0.6450 (1.5500) Aussie Retail Sales for December should boost the Aussie when its released Friday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6243 (1.6018)
Resistance: 0.6260 (1.6390)
Support: 0.6100 (1.5970)
Last Weeks range: 0.5962-0.6260 (1.5975-1.6774)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained under pressure this week against the Euro (EUR) with price moving lower to 0.6195 (1.6140) a 10 October low. The Aussie has broadly underperformed after employment data showed an increase in the number of unemployed to 5.1% from 5.0%. Risk associated currencies are all dropping with news the US and 12 other countries are accusing China for ongoing efforts to steal other countries trade secrets and advanced technologies. Criminal charges from the US Justice Department are expected to begin soon with countries including Great Britain, Australia, Canada, Japan and Germany all supportive. US Equities have fallen away sharply to nearly 2.0% on the day as the NY session comes to a close. The Italians have avoided sanctions after reaching a 2019 budget agreement. The compromise is to lower 2019 GDP to 2.04%. This has been achieved without making dramatic changes to key budget proposals.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6212  EURAUD 1.6097
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6195- 0.6354 EURAUD 1.5738- 1.6141

View AUDEUR charts

We have seen some choppy price action for the Australian dollar / Euro cross rate (AUD/EUR) over the past week. Both currencies have seen periods of pressure, but ultimately it’s the AUD that has underperformed. Soft Chinese data late last week weighed on the AUD and it’s help drive the pair to a low of 0.6320 (1.5822), after touching highs of 0.6380 (1.5673) earlier in the week. The EUR has also struggled, pressured by a dovish ECB statement and further confirmation that the Eurozone economy is slowing down.  Further volatility is likely in the coming days, with key Australian employment data set for release on Thursday. That data may well set the tone for the AUD over the Christmas period

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6324 (1.5812)
Resistance: 0.6380 (1.5900)
support: 0.6300 (1.5670)
Last week’s Range: 0.6296-0.6516 (1.5347-1.5884)

View AUDEUR charts

As we suggested the Euro (EUR) retraced higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) back to 0.6390 (1.5650) Friday, from the fibonacci retracement level of 0.6300 (1.5880). German economic sentiment published up at -17.5 against the expected -25.0 showing a rise in economic expectations was welcomed amid a worsening economic situation for Germany and the EU. Draghi’s ECB kept the benchmark rate unchanged overnight at 0.0%. The central bank expect the rate to remain unchanged through to the winter of 2019. Draghi said they would formally bring an end to the bond buying program at the end of this month despite concerns of an economic slowdown. Where to from here for the pair is a tough one to gauge, we expect a possible retest of 0.6540 (1.5300).

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6358   EURAUD 1.5729
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6296 – 0.6380   EURAUD 1.5674 – 1.5884

View AUDEUR charts

While the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been wrestling with risk off flows last week poor data has also contributed to its demise against the Euro (EUR). The pair was back at the five week low of 0.6290 (1.5900) Friday retracing weeks of gains. RBA’ Kent said the next policy shift would more than likely be a rate hike but some time away with global pressures likely to hinder the Aussie for some time yet. The move to 0.6300 (1.5870) is a 50% retracement of a larger move suggesting a pull back towards 0.6450 (1.5500) is coming. The ECB announce their cash rate Friday morning which will stay at 0.0% with the statement to follow holding much market focus as we may learn how Brexit is affecting the EU and future policy.

Exchange Rates
Current Level:  0.6337 (1.5780)
Resistance: 0.6519 (1.5880)
Support: 0.6300 (1.5340)
Last week’s Range: 0.6320-0.6519 (1.5340-1.5823)

View AUDEUR charts

Economic news has been poor this week for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Against the Euro (EUR) we have seen a sharp bounce lower from the recent high of 0.6515 (1.5350) Monday to travel back to 0.6340 (1.5770) as Aussie has been sold across the board. Aussie quarterly GDP printed much lower than markets were expecting at 0.3% based on predictions of 0.6% showing the Australian economy slowed sharply over the last quarter. The RBA has left the cash rate unchanged as widely expected siting a slowdown in global trade stemming from ongoing trade tensions, confirming the rate would remain at 1.50% for some time. Next week the ECB will announce their cash rate as unchanged from the 0.0% and reiterate concerns of a slowdown in the Eurozone. Resistance at 1.5900 could be tested over the next week before further topside momentum continues for the Aussie.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6356   EURAUD 1.5733
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6335- 0.6493   EURAUD 1.5401- 1.5784

View AUDEUR charts

It’s one way traffic with the Australian Dollar (AUD) extending its hold over the Euro (EUR) after risk associated products received a boost of confidence over the weekend, the pair travelling to 0.6520 (1.5340) as Trump and China agree on a trade tariff truce. The Italian Budget still weighs heavily on the Euro with threats of large fines still threatening to derail the Italian economy if an agreement is not met to resolve the massive budget deficit of 2.4B over 2019. The Italians could still face disciplinary action by the EU if the deficit forecast is not reduced significantly. Key interest this week is with today’s RBA cash announcement which is widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% for the 28th consecutive month. We have seen no hikes since November 2010 with the RBA signalling they are not likely to change for some time. Watch for Aussie Retail Sales later in the week as the release has scope to shift price if it doesn’t print at the expected 0.3%

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6479 (1.5434)
Resistance: 0.6523 (1.5780)
Support: 0.6340 (1.5330)
Last week’s Range:0.6381-0.6516 (1.5347-1.5671)

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro (EUR) traded lower off the weekly open to 0.6400 (1.5630) levels against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but the Aussie gave back its gains during Monday’s overnight sessions trading back to 0.6380 (1.5680) as markets turned risk off. Mario Draghi spoke on the Monetary affairs of the European Parliament and said… “prevailing uncertainties still call for patience, prudence and persistence in calibrating our monetary policy stance. Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. To ensure that inflation continues to move towards our aim in a sustained manner, a significant degree of monetary policy stimulus will be maintained, even after the end of net asset purchases.” Direction this week will be largely governed by the Italian Budget standoff, we expect the pair to retest the high of 0.6450 (1.5510) this week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6363 (1.5715)
Resistance: 0.6445 (1.5850)
Support: 0.6310 (1.5520)
Last week’s Range:0.6419-0.6337 (1.5577-1.5780)

View AUDEUR charts

Friday’s price action saw consolidation around the 0.6435 (1.5540) area in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair. Monday has seen a EUR recovery after four weeks of declines back to 0.6370 (1.5700) as risk in the markets deteriorates. Renewed global trade tensions have surfaced with the prospects of the US administration moving forward with additional tariffs has contributed to price action. RBA monetary meeting minutes should highlight a hawkish tone with upwardly revised GDP and inflation targets expected. German and French manufacturing prints later in the week. Expect Brexit headlines to again dominate mood later in the week with plenty of movement in the pair.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6368 (1.6703)
Resistance: 0.6400 (1.5730)
Support:  0.6360 (1.5630)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6361-0.6443 (1.5521-1.5722)

View AUDEUR charts

A depreciating Euro (EUR) has gone along for the ride after Brexit confusion in the Pound drove prices lower. Against the Australian Dollar the pair reached a fresh high of 0.6440 (1.5520) Friday meekly consolidating around this area. German GDP printed rubbish at -0.2% from 0.1% expected and Aussie employment printed exceptionally good. Surprisingly the Euro has held up well against the greenback but showed no contest with ongoing Italian Budget dramas vs the AUD. The pair has broken through key resistance of 0.6420 (1.5570) this week and looks to test 0.6550 (1.5270) the early January level.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6423   EURAUD 1.5569
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6443- 0.6372   EURAUD 1.5520- 1.5693

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is aiming for a fifth straight week of gains over the Euro (EUR) with price moving higher off the weekly open to 0.6400 (1.5630) keeping the bullish run alive. Italian Budget issues have kept the Euro against the wall, this week is no different. Italy have until the end of today (Tuesday) to present their revised Budget proposal to the EU. Italy’s Picchi remains defiant, with massive fines laid out this doesn’t seem to bother him. Further declines are expected in the EUR with resistance at 0.6410 (1.5600). This level looks like a done deal with a possibility of extending the Aussie rally all the way back to June 2018 levels of 0.6535 (1.5300) unless we see positive EU data. This week’s Aussie employment figures Thursday should confirm an improving economy.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6383 (1.5660)
Resistance: 0.6425 (1.5900)
Support: 0.6290 (1.5570)
Last Week’s range: 0.6317-0.6404 (1.5615-1.5831)

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended last week gains travelling to 0.6385 (1.5660) against the Euro (EUR) Friday. The Eurogroup met and discussed Italy’s budget woes, with EU finance ministers calling for the Italian government to redraft the budget. The Eurogroup president Mario Centeno remains confident that Italy will agree to changing its spending plans despite Rome’s populist government insisting that it won’t do so. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% sounding a little upbeat on future growth projections lifting the AUD for the fifth week in a row from the low of 0.6100 (1.6380). Next week’s Aussie wage growth and unemployment figures should confirm an improving economy.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6385  EURAUD 1.5661
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6302 – 0.6396   EURAUD 1.5636 – 1.5868

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This week’s price action in the Australian Dollar, Euro (AUD/EUR) pair should be no different to the last. Trading around 0.6320 (1.5820) Tuesday we expect upside momentum to drive the cross higher.  The Eurogroup met last night and discussed Italy’s budget woes with EU finance ministers calling for the Italian government to redraft the budget. The Eurogroup president Mario Centeno remains confident that Italy will agree to changing its spending plans despite Rome’s populist government insisting that it won’t do so. The Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) will announce their cash rate today widely expected to be remain unchanged at 1.50%. Markets are predicting a hawkish tone with recent weak CPI data.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5820)
Resistance: 0.6355 (1.6000)
Support:0.6250 (1.5740)
Last Week’s range: 0.6208-0.6351 (1.5746-1.6108)

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its rally against the Euro (EUR) this week, the fourth consecutive week the Australian Dollar has posted fresh highs. Earlier in the week Aussie CPI released slightly down on expectations stalling the Aussie rally but it was Thursdays Australian Trade Balance figures which sent buyers into a frenzy for the Aussie. Figures released at a whopping 3.02 Billion surplus much higher than the 1.71 Billion markets were expecting. After a week of sideways movement, the AUD broke free from the rangy motion travelling to 0.6320 (1.5820) the 23rd August high. Today’s Aussie Retail Sales could push the pair towards 0.6400 (1.5625) if the numbers are good. Next weeks focus will be on the RBA statement with the central bank not expected to waiver from its current 1.50%

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6322   EURAUD 1.5818
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6177- 0.6325   EURAUD 1.5809- 1.6188

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) tracking back through the high of 0.6230 (1.6050) as it eyes 0.6260 (1.5980) resistance level. Equities closed higher overnight with all 3 indices posting over 2% gains- this led to investors backing risk associated currencies with the Aussie pushing higher. Mario Draghi left the benchmark rate on hold as widely anticipated highlighting he would do away with the quantitative easing program at the end of 2018. Next week’s Australian CPI and Retail Sales will be key to Aussie support back towards 0.6345 (1.5760), we still need a break through 0.6565 (1.5230) to confirm an exit from the bearish channel in place since January 2017

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6217   EURAUD 1.6084
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6154 – 0.6236   EURAUD 1.6036 – 1.6248

View AUDEUR charts
The AUD has held well on this cross as problems abound around the Italian and Spanish budgets, currently at 0.6197 the Aussie is holding well. However, this weekend’s Wentworth bye-election could see the ruling Conservative government lose this once safe seat and this would lead to selling pressure on the AUD. The 0.6100 support should hold into next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6188   EURAUD 1.6158
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6135 – 0.6210   EURAUD 1.6103 – 1.6301

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The Euro (EUR, Australian Dollar (AUD) pair slid to 0.6170 (1.6200) Monday on risk fears against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but has since consolidated around the 0.6190 (1.6235) area. The long term bearish channel is still in play from the high of 0.7300 (1.3700) in January 2017 as we think momentum still lies with the Euro. Markets eye Thursday’s Australian employment data to gauge further direction with markets expecting a decent release stemming from the incredible August figures.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6158 (1.6240)
Resistance: 0.6190 (1.6350)
Support: 0.6120 (1.6150)
Last week’s range: 0.9166-0.9317 (1.6148-1.6357)

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It’s been a light week of economic data for the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with only Australian Business confidence showing a strained Australian economy. The Euro was put on the backfoot earlier in the week as the cross travelled to 0.6190 (1.6150) with the Italian Budget still causing concerns. The long term bearish channel is still in play from the high of 0.7300 (1.3700) in January 2017 as we think momentum still lies with the Euro.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6141   EURAUD 1.6284
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6114- 0.6193   EURAUD 1.6148- 1.6357

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The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross continues to be choppy trading over the week from 0.6260 (1.5980) to a low of 0.6120 (1.6340) bouncing off early month support. Aussie Trade Balance and Retail Sales boosted the currency momentarily after the Government surplus increased to 1.6 Billion beating forecasts of 1.4 Billion but the main price action was seen with Italian Budget blowouts as the October 15 deadline looms. The long-term bearish channel is still in play from the high of 0.7300 (1.3700) in January 2017 as we think momentum still lies with the Euro.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6160 (1.6233)
Resistance: 0.6250 (1.6350)
Support: 0.6115 (1.6000)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6116-0.6250  (1.5999-1.6351)

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A choppy week on Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair with the Euro weakening on news of the Italian budget deficit blowout and comments from a government official that it should leave the Eurozone.  We saw the AUD/EUR trade up to 0.6256 but quickly snapping back after the Italians cut the budget deficit forecast in half and the AUD fell against the USD. The AUD/EUR is now trading close to weekly lows at 0.6143 (1.6278) and we look for further moves towards the 0.6100 (1.6395) support level early next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6148   EURAUD 1.6265
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6143- 0.6250   EURAUD 1.5999- 1.6279

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has started the week on a good footing against the Euro (EUR) pushing higher to 0.6250 (1.6010). Italy’s budget issues have spooked buyers of the EUR and may remain nervous until the final Italian budget is submitted on the 15th of October 2018. Today’s Australian RBA meeting shouldn’t throw up any surprises with the cash rate remaining at 1.5% and the same rhetoric discussed. The pair has broken past four week resistance Tuesday, the Aussie should continue to enjoy further support through to 0.6270 (1.5950)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6243 (1.6015)
Resistance: 0.6300 (1.6350)
Support: 0.6115 (1.5880)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6153-0.6245 (1.6012-1.6253)

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Midweek saw a shift higher in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair to 0.6200 (1.6150)   from the recent low of 0.6150 (1.6260) after support for the Euro sank. The pair is still hovering around the extremely low levels of December 2015, with a break below 0.6060 (1.6500) we are into territory my chart doesn’t go to – beyond 2013 price levels. On the upside 0.6230 (1.6050) is resistance, if prices are to breach here we would need to see a favourable outcome with Trump/China talks.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6195 EURAUD 1.6142
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6153 – 0.6206  EURAUD 1.6113 – 1.6253

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The more positive comments from ECB Head Draghi overnight saw the AUD retreat from the 0.6174 level to a low of 0.6157, it is now trading around 0.6173 and should hold around these levels until the Fed release on Thursday. Metal prices are still AUD supportive and we retain our view of a move back to the 0.6230/50 level later in the week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6174 (1.6196)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6393)
Support: 0.6100 (1.5949)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6132-0.6229 (1.6055-1.6307)

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Better result for the AUD on this cross as it has tracked higher from the 0.6123 low at the start of the week , making a high of 0.6230 overnight…now at 0.6185 the AUD should hold current levels helped by the return to risk and better base metal prices…risk is weighed to EUR on geopolitical concerns and we look for further a move back to the 0.6230/50 level early next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6181   EURAUD 1.6178
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6123 – 0.6229   EURAUD 1.6055 – 1.6332

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On way traffic continues to be the theme with the Australian Dollar (AUD) Euro (EUR) pair, trading just off last week’s low of 0.6115 (1.6350) at 0.6150 (1.6270) Tuesday this is a continuation of the bearish long term move from 0.6560 (1.5300) of June this year. Today’s RBA August monetary minutes will be key to gauge further direction with Eurozone manufacturing numbers to print later in the week. With a mixed bag of manufacturing results out of Germany and Spain late August these results will be pivotal.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6137 (1.6295)
Resistance: 0.6160 (1.6340)
Support:0.6120 (1.6230)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6115 – 0.6194 (1.6145 – 1.6353)

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It’s been a choppy week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair bouncing from a low of 0.6120 (1.6350) to 0.6200 (1.6140) in volatile conditions. The Euro has made inroads during Thursdays overnight sessions pushing the cross down to 0.6150 (1.6250) after the ECB left their benchmark rate unchanged. The long term view is further EUR strength with the bearish channel dominating since early August from the high of 0.6410 (1.5600) President Trump’s ongoing trade war discussions are having a negative effect on the Aussie Dollar (AUD) based on the trade tariffs imposed on China and the detrimental impact on the Australian economy’s ability to export to China.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6142   EURAUD 1.6284
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6115- 0.6194   EURAUD 1.7981- 1.8369

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) still looks very vulnerable to further downside against the Euro (EUR). Monday has seen the continuation of the huge bearish trend from June 2018 price of 0.6550 (1.5270) surge lower through key – monumental prior support of 0.6150 (1.6250) – August 2015 levels to register 0.6135 (1.6300) Tuesday. The Euro received a friendly boost during the Monday overnight sessions after news broke of a possible November (stage 1) brexit agreement. Adding to Aussie woes is the ongoing trade war saga which threatens to go for months as President Trump negotiates agreements with Canada, Japan and China. As long as markets remain spooked by taking on risk currencies such as the Australian Dollar it will continue to ease lower- it’s that simple.

Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.6127 (1.6320)
Resistance: 0.6200 (1.6500)
Support: 0.6060 (1.6150)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6128 – 0.6238 (1.6042-1.6319)

 

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The AUDEUR has been in a significant down trend since mid-August and that continued this week with the pair trading to fresh cycle lows of 0.6165. This came despite better than forecast Australian GDP data that hit the wires on Wednesday. There are however signs that the downtrend is losing momentum and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a significant recovery over the coming week or two. Those looking to purchase Australian dollars (AUD) with Euro (EUR) should take advantage of the current level, or any potential further weakness, as we don’t believe it will be sustained.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6190   EURAUD 1.6155
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6165- 0.6234   EURAUD 1.6042- 1.6220

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It has been one-way traffic to the downside for this pair for much of the past two weeks. Back on the 20th of August the AUDEUR traded at 0.6409, but after relentless pressure the cross touched a low of 0.6184 yesterday. That’s just shy of the 0.6177 low set back in March of this year. The selling is starting to look a little overdone, but any recovery is going to be in the hands of the RBA with their rate statement set for release this afternoon. The central bank could easily spark a small AUD short squeeze if they maintain a relatively neutral tone, but only time will tell. As long as the pair remains above 0.6177 then we will continue to look for a corrective recovery. Any break below 0.6177 however would be a negative signal and likely encourage further selling.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6205  (1.6177)
Resistance: 0.6295 (1.6190)
Support: 0.6177 (1.5886)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6184 – 0.6291 (1.5896 – 1.6171)

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Worse than expected Australian data has diminished any chances of an AUD recovery this week with worse than market expectations printing for Building Approvals and Capital Expenditure sent the Aussie Dollar (AUD) down to a record level of 0.6220 (1.6075). Starting the week at 0.6300 (1.5880) the Aussie was under immediate pressure losing over 80 points to midday Friday. Next week’s Australian Retails Sales and most importantly RBA Cash Rate will be key to any Aussie strength.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6220   EURAUD 1.6076
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6214 – 0.6312   EURAUD 1.5842 – 1.6093

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The EUR continues to pressure the AUD, with this cross falling to 0.6271 at the close of last week. Now at 0.6290 as the AUD gain some support from the overnight equity market rally….However we remain if the view, that given better than expected EU data releases   the AUD will remain under pressure on this cross.

Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.6285 (1.5910)
Resistance: 0.6320 (1.5950)
Support: 0.6270 (1.5820)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6271 – 0.6390 (1.7420-1.7694)

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The Euro (EUR) has had a massive week posting large gains against the weakened Australian Dollar (AUD) Coming off initial early week prices of around 0.6400 (1.5630) the pair has travelled to 0.6280 (1.5920) Friday pushing aside previous hard support of 0.6300 (1.5890) with ease. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will be glad when this week is over after facing multiple leadership challenges from Peter Dutton and down the chain Bishop and Robertson. This behavior is fairly common in Australian Political law as we have seen before. A light economic calendar is in store next week for the pair with Australian private Expenditure to print- most price movement will be made up from Australian Politics.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6274   EURAUD 1.5939
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6274 – 0.6409   EURAUD 1.5603 – 1.5938

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A pickup in risk sentiment late Friday shifted the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher versus the Euro to 0.6400 (1.5630), where it met resistance heading into the weekend. Buying interest this week in the pair has been fickle trading up to 0.6410 (1.5600) and back Tuesday. Lowe will give the minutes of the recent RBA meeting today at 1.30pm and is expected to give an upbeat tone on future inflation prospects. German and French manufacturing numbers print this week and should offer the Euro (EUR) support heading into this week’s yearly pivotal Jackson Hole Symposium Friday.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6378 (1.5679 )
Resistance: 0.6420 (1.5720)
Support: 0.6320 (1.5580)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6539 – 0.6409 (1.5603 – 1.5725)

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The Australian unemployment number took the Australian Dollar (AUD) off its weekly low of 0.6360 (1.5720) against the Euro (EUR). Printing at 5.3% instead of the markets expected 5.4% the Aussie pushed higher to 0.6400 (1.5630) Choppiness is still showing fickle trading conditions in the pair with risk sentiment changing several times over the week. We don’t expect the cross to travel to far from its current price of 0.6380 (1.5670) heading into the weekly close.  RBA’s Lowe speaks today; we expect the normal recent rhetoric.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6387   EURAUD 1.5656
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6359- 0.6405   EURAUD 1.5613- 1.5725

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR), after starting the week at 0.6400 (1.5620) the EUR rallied to 0.6375 (1.5690) Last week reports showed that the EU bank exposure to Turkey rattled the EUR but it has bounced back. Key Aussie data will play out Wednesday with wage price Index and Thursday’s unemployment data, but we also have German economic sentiment to be wary of with numbers from July printing below market expectations and weakening the Euro. From where its trading now 0.6380 (1.5680) we see limited topside for the EUR for now with ongoing Turkish Lira concerns.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6373 (1.5691)
Resistance: 0.6420 (1.5800 )
Support: 0.6330 (1.5580)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6369 – 0.6418 (1.5581 – 1.5701)

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been stable this week versus the Euro (EUR) operating in range of 0.6385 (1.5660) and 0.6420 (1.5580) Both currencies have not lit up the skies with any interesting or significant data releases over the week. Even the RBA spoke from the same record Tuesday when they left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.50% for two straight years. The only comments of note were a cautious tone with housing and continued wage growth. We have another RBA monetary statement today at 1.30pm NZT no-doubt more hysteria will grip markets (joking). Australian wage data and unemployment figures are to publish next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6392    EURAUD 1.5644
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6350 – 0.6418   EURAUD 1.5581 – 1.5749

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The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) broke higher from its range Friday clearing 0.6385 (1.5660) on its way to fresh highs of 0.6405 (1.5615) a seven week high. The release of the Q2 Eurozone GDP disappointed showing growth is building slower than anticipated bringing fresh speculation that the ECB will be slow to tighten monetary policy. Retail Sales boosted Aussie fortunes coming in at 0.4% instead of the market predicted 0.3% and surprising markets. This week in focus is the RBA Interest Rate decision with a slight bearish tone expected.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6390 (1.5650)
Resistance: 0.6445 (1.5870)
Support: 0.6300 (1.5520 )
Last Week’s Range:  0.6321 – 0.6404 (1.5616 – 1.5820)

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Slightly better than expected German and Spanish CPI figures took the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair to 0.6320 (1.5820) early this week but a positive Australian Trade Balance number saw the pair spike higher back to 0.6375 (1.5730). 0.6360 (1.5720) holds massive resistance for the cross as it has bounced off this level a dozen times since late June. Anything past here could spell a significant move back towards 0.6535 (1.5300) early June levels. Next week we have crucial RBA Cash Rate announcement and monetary statement Tuesday with no change to the 1.5% expected.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6353   EURAUD 1.5740
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6321- 0.6361   EURAUD 1.5722- 1.5820

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The Australian Dollar (AUD) has weakened this week versus the Euro (EUR) to 0.6320 (1.5820) with political uncertainty weighing on the pair. With major political developments across the financial plane both domestic data in the two countries has made any real impact on the cross. If anything the Australian Dollar is showing good resilience mainly due to risk sentiment. With geopolitical tensions between the US and North Korea easing this has buoyed interest with investors taking on more risk.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6330 (1.5798)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.5870)
Support: 0.6300 (1.5720)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6302 – 0.6362 (1.5718-1.5868)

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After reaching a low late Friday of 0.6300 (1.5880) the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross retraced back to 0.6330 (1.5800) as we commented it would, where it closed the week. With risk investors sitting to the sides we have seen risk averse sentiment drive the EUR higher to 0.6305 (1.5860) where it sits Tuesday.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6314 (1.5837)

Resistance: 0.6370 (1.5880)

Support: 0.6300 (1.5700)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6294-0.6382 (1.5688-1.5889)

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After a high yesterday of 0.6387 on release of the much better than expected employment data, this cross is now back around the 0.6315 level as the AUD is sucked back by lower commodity prices…should hold around current levels to close the week but look for the AUD to drift lower on this cross especially if commodity prices remain under pressure.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6308   EURAUD 1.5854
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6295 – 0.6382   EURAUD 1.7581 – 1.7878

View AUDEUR charts

Choppy trading in this cross but within existing ranges, now at 0.6331 but the Aussie looks vulnerable on this cross, pressured by weaker commodity prices and the potential for dovish RBA minutes later today. 0.6310 should be tested over the next day or so, a break of which would see a run towards 0.6265.

Exchange Rates
Current Level:  0.6329 (1.5799)
Resistance: 0.6370 (1.5847)
Support: 0.6310 (1.5698)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6298 – 0.6369 (1.5701 – 1.5877)

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This cross has bounced around in a 73 point range between 0.6297-0.6370 over the last 3 days with little clear direction as both currencies are knocked by the ongoing trade war developments…the drop in commodity prices late in the week have more potential to push the AUD to weaker levels on this cross if commodity values continue to erode next week…now back at the 0.6358 mark the AUD should hold these levels until China data late this afternoon helps set direction.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6350 EURAUD 1.5748
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6298- 0.6369 EURAUD 1.5701- 1.5877

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD is currently sitting around the 0.6360 mark, up from a 0.6324 low overnight…data looks to favour the Aussie more than the EUR currently and with commodity prices continuing to hold firm, look for the AUD to stay well bid against the EUR on this cross …further ructions from the NATO meeting later this week with President Trump also have potential to negatively affect EUR levels..

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6358 (1.5728)
Resistance: 0.6370 (1.5847)
Support: 0.6310 (1.5698)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6295 – 0.6361 (1.5721- 1.5886)

View AUDEUR charts

The perfectly formed bullish channel mentioned in the last commentary is still in play in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross.  It started from the high of 0.6545 (1.5280) and has extended over the last five weeks to 0.6295 (1.5890). Technically with this in mind investors and traders would be keen to bet against further momentum in the EUR as it makes further advances towards 0.6250 (1.6000). Currently trading around the 0.6320 (1.5820) area with US Non-Farm Payroll tonight.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6319   EURAUD 1.5826
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6295 – 0.6359   EURAUD 1.5726 – 1.5886

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You rarely see a bullish channel on the chart form so perfectly formed as the one in progress now with the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD). It started from the high of 0.6545 (1.5280) and has extended over the last five weeks to 0.6295 (1.5890). Technically with this in mind investors and traders would be keen to bet against further momentum in the EUR as it makes further advances towards 0.6250 (1.6000).

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6341 (1.5770)
Resistance: 0.6370 (1.5900)
Support: 0.6290 (1.5700)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6295 – 0.6370 (1.5699-1.5886)

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro (EUR) has continued its bull run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) trading to a seven week low of 0.6320 (1.5820) German CPI was benign overnight printing at 0.1% based on expectation the figure would be closer to 0.2%, year on year this represents a rise of 2.1% to June 2018. European leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two day summit with some dark days ahead; high on the agenda will be the ongoing intl trade tensions. Next week’s RBA cash rate meeting will be interesting to gauge further direction.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6340   EURAUD 1.5772
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6319- 0.6387   EURAUD 1.5658- 1.5826

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is well into its fourth week of declines against the Euro (EUR) suffering further weakness to 0.6325 (1.5810). Investors choosing to broadly stay out of deemed risk currencies such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) with further deterioration in risk “sentiment” as the US-China trade war deepens. With last week’s Manufacturing and Services numbers publishing well we will need further indication that these were not just blips in the EUR recovery program. If the Euro is to have a shot at the prior low of 0.6175 (1.6190) it must prove the bounce back is based on growth momentum and long term sustainability.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6332 (1.5793)
Resistance: 0.6400 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5620)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6322-0.6402 (1.5621 – 1.5817)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has depreciated further against the Euro (EUR) over the past few days extending the decline from 0.6550 (1.5270) trading to 0.6350 (1.5740). Both central banks the RBA and the ECB spoke during the week talking from the same song sheet reiterating that rate rises would take time. Overnight the EUR has benefited from some bullish sentiment in the GBP with the Bank of England leaving the cash rate unchanged at 0.5%. German Manufacturing is tonight with markets predicting the numbers to be on cue. We see further declines on the cards for the Euro back above the 0.6535 (1.5300) area.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6363   EURAUD 1.5715
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6349 – 0.6457   EURAUD 1.5486 – 1.5750

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro (EUR) has appreciated sharply from this week’s open against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6385 (1.5660) with Eurozone wage data rising at a faster pace over the last three months. However, data last week indicated there has been no strong rebound from the first quarter slowdown in economic growth. 0.6370 (1.5700) is reflecting support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) this being the 50% retracement area highlighted from the high of 0.6557 (1.5250). We expect Aussie strength this week to retest 0.6410 (1.5600)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6380  (1.5674)
Resistance: 0.6425 (1.5730)
Support: 0.6355 (1.5560)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6360 – 0.6480 (1.5433 – 1.5724)

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair meandered along a path of no real change throughout the week bouncing around 0.6450 (1.5500) as markets awaited key data. The EUR somehow managed to trade down to 0.6370 (1.5700) Thursday based on a mixed bag of Aussie employment data but has since retraced this earlier move back to 0.6465 (1.5470) with the ECB (European Central Bank) announcing they would keep rates unchanged but highlighted there would be no improvement until late 2019. This has spooked investors who will be eying 0.6560 (1.5250) now and beyond.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6449   EURAUD 1.5506
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6376- 0.6480   EURAUD 1.5433- 1.5683

View AUDEUR charts

After finding support and bouncing off the high of 0.6550 (1.5280) last week the Euro (EUR) reached 0.6430 (1.5550) before easing back to 0.6460 (1.5470) early this week in thin market conditions. The main event of the week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting with economists expecting a boost for the EUR. Policy makers should hint at easing monetary policy later in 2018 in the form of higher interest rates. For the meantime mild support is seen at 0.6460 (1.5480) with a push back to 0.6425 (1.5560) expected.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6456 (1.5489)
Resistance: 0.6540 (1.5610)
Support: 0.6410 (1.5280)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6428 – 0.6543 (1.5285 – 1.5557)

View AUDEUR charts

A long term lack of support for the EUR has come to an end this week with the EUR starting to recoup earlier losses against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Euro has been on the back foot since 0.6200 (1.6150) the late April low but has broken from this decline trading through 0.6470 (1.5450) midweek from the high of 0.6550 (1.5270).  Hawkish comments were said around the inflation outlook boosting predictions for a positive ECB meeting next week. We still see uncertainty on the horizon in Spain and Italy and predict prices to reflect a possible weaker EUR looking ahead back retesting 0.6580 (1.5200)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6453   EURAUD 1.5497
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6439 – 0.6546   EURAUD 1.5277 – 1.5529

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro (EUR) was been hammered this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropping to a mid-January 2018 low of 0.6530 (1.5315) with political uncertainties in Italy developing as a result of the recent election. As the situation eased the EUR recovered along with worse than expected Aussie Private Capital Expenditure which printed at 0.4% on expectations of 0.8%. The RBA Release their cash rate and monetary policy next week, no change is expected at 1.50% Watch for volatility during US Non-Farm Payroll.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6468   EURAUD 1.5460
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6454 – 0.6528   EURAUD 1.5319 – 1.5493

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its push higher against the struggling EURO (EUR) with the pair reaching 0.6500 (1.5370) as the EURO was flogged. The Italian election has weighed on the currency as uncertainty increases. A snap election is now on the cards. If Italian were to cast a vote against the EU at fresh elections this would bring to the table the bloc’s biggest challenge. Italy is the third largest economy and heavily in debt which represents a potential threat to the EUR than the Greek economic crisis. The EUR should extend its five week fall lower over the coming days with resistance seen at 0.6570 (1.5220).

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6471 (1.5453)

Resistance: 0.6500 (1.5600)

Support: 0.6410 (1.5370)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6404 – 0.6504 (1.5374 – 1.5616)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued to push the EURO (EUR) lower currently sitting at fresh highs of around 0.6470 (1.5450). The 1st of February 2018 was the last time this level was achieved. With geopolitical issues this week we have seen risk turn on a dime and spook markets, equities have been up and down several times over the week creating difficult trading conditions for investors. RBA governor Lowe spoke Wednesday night and highlighted debt risks facing China since the GFC of 2008 and how they could impact on the Australian economy given the strong trading relationships the two countries have. I wouldn’t bet against the Aussie continuing its momentum to retest 0.6550 (1.5260)

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6463   EURAUD 1.5474
The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6359 – 0.6468   EURAUD 1.5462 – 1.5726

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has tanked over the past ten days dropping in value against the revived Australian Dollar (AUD) with 0.6400 (1.5620) being tested as we commented and broken with the pair travelling to 0.6440 (1.5530). The four week low of 0.6195 (1.6140) is a distant memory – the Aussie (AUD) has recovered well in a market which has also seen large selling action in the EUR. Its mostly EU data to publish for the rest of the week to dictate price with just the RBA governor Lowe to speak Wednesday on the Chinese economy.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6430 (1.5550)

Resistance: 0.6450 (1.5730)

Support: 0.6360 (1.5500)

Last Week’s Range: 0.9589 – 0.9715 (1.5534-1.5888)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to regain losses from three weeks back versus the EURO (EUR) after mixed Aussie employment data published. The unemployment rate is up slightly from 5.5% to 5.6% with the economy adding 22,600 jobs in April up on the 19,800 expected. This put the EUR on the back foot as the pair travelled to 0.6370 (1.5700). Next week will interesting with a slew of eurozone manufacturing figures to publish 1.5620 resistance could be tested.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6360   EURAUD 1.5723

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6294- 0.6385   EURAUD 1.5661- 1.5888

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar closed the week marginally in positive territory against the Euro (EUR) around 0.6320 (1.5820) at one point trading at a high of 0.6340 (1.5770). A slow start to the week has seen the EUR make up ground to 0.6300 (1.5880) support. The 40-day moving average looks to creating resistance around current levels with the pair expected to trade back to the previous low of 0.6300 (1.5880) if German economic sentiment tonight is below expectation.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6305 (1.5804)

Resistance: 0.6340 (1.5960)

Support: 0.6265 (1.5780)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6265-0.6338 (1.5778-1.5962)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its long-term momentum lower this week against the Euro (EUR) with the pair trading around the top of the bearish channel at 0.6320 (1.5820). The Aussie has made a reasonable gain coming from 0.6270 (1.5950) but needs to be around 0.6380 (1.5670) to break from the downward spiral from January 2017. The Australian Budget was published with no surprises; tax cuts the main talking point. Buyers waiting for better prices should consider this spike higher based on an expected retrace lower.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6313   EURAUD 1.5840

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6265- 0.323   EURAUD 1.5815- 1.5962

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has continued its bearish move lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidating around the 0.6300 (1.5870) level. The EU economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018 with economic growth figures at 0.4% compared to 0.7% for the last quarter of 2017. The RBA commented that they see faster than economic growth in 2018 but stopped short of saying their inflation target will be reached by 2020 and the cash rate will stay at the record low for some time yet. With demand the Aussie Dollar (AUD) increasing over recent days markets will have a keen eye on NAB business confidence and the government’s annual budget Tuesday Night.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6295 (1.5885)

Resistance: 0.6320 (1.5960)

Support: 0.6265 (1.5830)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6233 – 0.6322 (1.5844 – 1.6045)

View AUDEUR charts

Euro (EUR) weakness has taken hold of the AUD/EUR cross sending it lower to 0.6290 (1.5890) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).  The EU economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018 with economic growth figures at 0.4% compared to 0.7% for the last quarter of 2017. Growth in the bloc reached 2.5% year on year. The RBA left rates on hold Tuesday as expected with no significant changes in the statement. They noted that current policy is accommodative with inflation and employment slowly returning to its target.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6295   EURAUD 1.5885

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6228- 0.9292   EURAUD 1.5893- 1.6057

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) long term trend from the high of 0.7330 (1.3640) 12 February 2017 rolls on. The Australian Dollar (AUD) made up ground last week at one point trading to a high of 0.6260 (1.5970) but was soon back under pressure trading at 0.6230 (1.6050). Support is still seen at 0.6195 (1.6140) with CPI figures to release at the end of the week we could see a retest of 0.6215 (1.6090). Today’s RBA decision could lend support for a depleted Aussie Dollar.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6240 (1.6025)

Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6130)

Support: 0.6200 (1.5900)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6196 – 0.6262 (1.5970 – 1.6140)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar (AUD) has suffered against the Euro (EUR) this week trading to a low last night of 0.6227. The move is a continuation of the declines that started in the wake of last week’s soft Australian employment numbers. Since then the AUD has underperformed most other currencies in the face of broad based USD strength. Today’s Australian inflation data will be key to near term direction, but with the current bearish trend firmly entrenched, it would take a surprisingly strong result to turn the market around. If we get a soft inflation figure, the 2018 low of 0.6177 will be a target.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6228 (1.6057 )

Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6189)

Support: 0.6177 (1.5949)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6227 – 0.6309 (1.5850 – 1.6059)

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has carried over its bullish theme against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week, Thursday pushing to a fresh low of 0.6258 (1.5980) with risk markets taking a backseat to the safe haven investment. Australian employment data didn’t assist the Aussie with figures lower than expected weighing it down. The 2018 bearish move is still in play from the high of 0.6600 (1.5150) as the pair may retest the late March price of 0.6180 (1.6180) if next week’s German, French and French manufacturing figures are positive.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6250   EURAUD 1.6000

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6247- 0.6338   EURAUD 1.5777- 1.6009

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The EURO (EUR) has reversed last week’s losses pushing off the high of 0.6340 (1.5770) travelling to 0.6273 (1.5940) against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD). Aussie monetary policy minutes is published today as markets predict the comments should offer the Aussie further support leading into the Australian unemployment rate Friday. Technically the pair is trading above the 40 day moving average but looks shaky at the current level of 0.6280 (1.5920). Look for a break higher back to 0.6400 (1.5620).

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6275 (1.5936)

Resistance: 0.6395 (1.6200)

Support:  0.6173 (1.5640)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6252 – 0.6338 (1.5777 – 1.5994)

View AUDEUR charts

The market pushed the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher this week to 0.6305 (1.5860) against the EURO (EUR) but it has not been all one-way traffic. Trade tensions over tariffs with the US and China are still a cause of concern with Trump now joining the party with missile threats into Syria drawing questions. The markets have chosen to invest in risk currencies for most of the week with the AUD making small gains over the EURO. The cross has sailed through last week’s resistance at 0.6290 (1.5900) and looks to test prior levels around 0.6330 (1.5800) soon.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6298   EURAUD 1.5878

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6227 – 0.6304   EURAUD 1.5863 – 1.6060

View AUDEUR charts

Whipsaw movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD), EURO (EUR) pair has been evident over the past two weeks while the trade negotiations between China and the US government tensions still dominate markets. The cross traded to a low of 0.6225 (1.6060) Monday after risk again came off the table and investors purchased the safer EUR. We see a continued move in the pair back to late March lows of 0.6180 (1.6180) as the EUR marches forward from the recent momentum based from the January high of 0.6610 (1.5130)

Exchange Rates

Current level: 0.6275 (1.5936)

Resistance: 0.6289 (1.0608)

Support:0.6220 (1.5900)

Last Week’s Range:0.6227 – 0.6289 (1.5900 – 1.6060)

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has extended its loses on last week’s falls against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the pair reached a high of 0.6290 (1.5900), it looks set to test the previous high of 0.6305 (1.5860) perhaps this week, Earlier the German Retails Sales printed worse than expected offering further support for the Aussie (AUD) with EURO CPI surprising to the downside with 1.4% headline inflation. Non-Farm Payroll is expected to offer up its usual volatility to currencies later tonight, but with a positive figure on the cards expected, we may see a break through 0.6300.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6270   EURAUD 1.5949

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6217- 0.6290   EURAUD 1.5899- 1.6084

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) continues to gain strength against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing past the mid-January 2016 support of 0.6225 (1.6065) to post a new low of 0.6517 (1.6085) Markets were spooked late in the week with continued trade talks dampening earlier risk appetite, the pair was soon back to 0.6250 (1.6000) as President Trump created more ripples. This week’s movement will also be guided around by overseas influences and risk with no significant data to publish just German Retail Sales and CPI. We expect the pair to continue through to 0.6150 (1.6250)

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6240 (1.6025)

Resistance: 0.6258 (1.6180)

Support: 0.6180  (1.5980)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6177 – 0.6255 (1.5988 – 1.6190)

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has made small gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after initially posting a high off 0.6305 (1.5860) the pair was sold off back through the weekly open to a fresh low of 0.6234 (1.6040). Next week we have French and German Manufacturing along with German Economic Sentiment. Buyers of EUR should watch for the near term key support of 0.6150 (1.6260)

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6245   EURAUD 1.6013

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6235 – 0.6335   EURAUD 1.5785 – 1.6039

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to lose ground over its EURO (EUR) counterpart falling to 0.6240 (1.6025) early Tuesday. Having started the previous week at 0.6385 (1.5660) this is a significant shift to the downside showing thin air to 0.6020 (1.6600) support area going all the way back to August 2015. Aussie Monetary Policy Minutes publish Tuesday afternoon and Australian Unemployment figures print Thursday. Current levels represent favourable times for selling EURO, watch for spikes lower over the coming days..

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6245 (1.6012)

Resistance: 0.6370 (1.6240)

Support: 0.6157 (1.5700)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6241 – 0.6394 (1.5639 – 1.6024)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD), EURO (EUR) has pushed back to the weekly low of 0.6330 (1.5800) after earlier bouncing off resistance of 0.6400 (1.5630) A raft of positive Chinese data releases gave the Australian Dollar (AUD) a boost with the biggest expansion since figures since last June showing the economy is booming. The industrial production figures for February rose by a massive 7.2%. Technically the pair sits on the 50% retracement level between the low of 0.6277 (1.5930) and the high of  0.6400 (1.5630) if passing lower through the 40 day moving has relevance we may see the previous low of 0.6277 (1.5930) tested. A bunch of German manufacturing data to publish next week along with Aussie unemployment numbers.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6325   EURAUD 1.5810

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6319- 0.6401   EURAUD 1.5624- 1.5825

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) made a strong comeback late last week against the EURO (EUR) in risk on markets buoyed by calmer investors after Trump’s comments regarding tariffs. The Aussie (AUD) pushed all the way back to massive resistance levels of 0.6400 (1.5620), the pair has eerily rejected this level over 5 times over the past month. The RBA’s Bullock speaks today along with NAB Business confidence should give the Aussie (AUD) further momentum leading into ECB Draghi’s speech tomorrow. Watch for AUD/EUR to travel back to 0.6330 (1.5800) this week.

Exchange Rates

Current Level:0.6388 (1.5655)

Resistance: 0.6410 (1.5930)

Support:0.6277 (1.5600)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6259-0.6401 (1.5624 – 1.5976)

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) dropped in value against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Thursday after Draghi’s ECB speech. The initial confident tone pushed the pair lower to 0.6273 before EUR was sold off over the next few hours to 0.6333 (1.5790) as the AUD continues to make up ground. NAB Business confidence prints next week along with German Economic sentiment, expect further swings.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6320   EURAUD 1.5822

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6259- 0.6334   EURAUD 1.5789- 1.5976

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) has broken key support against the Australian Dollar (AUD) during the current cycle of AUD weakness as it has pushed aside 0.6330 (1.5800) during Eurozone election carnage. Somehow the EUR has found strength with investors as buyers continue to see the EUR as good buying. The 0.6190 (1.6130) level of mid 2015 still remains the target as we previously reported, some may say inevitable now, perhaps the RBA later today will give the Australian Dollar some much needed direction.

Exchange Rates

Current Level:0.6301 (1.5870)

Resistance: 0.6330 (1.6180)

Support:0.6180 (1.5800)

Last Week’s Range:  0.6278 – 0.6399 (1.7672 -1.7864)

View AUDEUR charts

The EURO (EUR) looks to be on the verge of breaking past the key support level of 0.6330 (1.5800) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it makes a push into March 2016 levels. As the EUR gathers pace against the AUD the double bottom support level of 0.6191 (1.6130) from mid 2015 and early 2016 remains a target in the medium term if the ECB can sort out its quantitative easing program.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6330   EURAUD 1.5798

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6319- 0.6401  EURAUD 1.5621- 1.5824

View AUDEUR charts

Much overdue price action in Australian Dollar/ Euro (AUD/EUR) saw the pair rally to a 0.6408 (1.5604) high before pulling back below 0.6400 to trade at 0.6357 (1.5730) Thursday in heavy traffic after German Manufacturing figures published. Support still seen at 0.6330 with ECB Policy Minutes to come Friday to perhaps offer further assistance for the EUR heading into next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6360   EURAUD 1.5723

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6347- 0.6407   EURAUD 1.7611- 1.7849

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar – EURO (AUD/EUR) has seen very little action over the past week- two week period. The pair currently trades at 0.6377 (1.5680) the same price it was at last weekend’s close and the week before- odd. Further direction is clearly needed as the EUR tries to break downside support of 0.6329 (1.5800) last seen in January 2016. This week’s German Manufacturing will be key Wednesday.

Exchange Rates

Current Level: 0.6377 (1.5681)

Resistance: 0.6390 ( 1.5650)

Support: 0.6361 (1.5720)

Last Week’s Range: 0.6324 – 0.6406 ( 1.5610 – 1.5813)

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar- Euro (AUD/EUR) has seen a week of wide ranging prices as the pair struggles to find a level. Trading as high as 0.6408 (1.5606) Tuesday it travelled to 0.6322 (1.5816) as direction remained uncertain. Next week we have Aussie Monetary Policy.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6350   EURAUD 1.5748

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6324- 6404   EURAUD 1.5610- 1.5813

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar (AUD) broke last week’s tight trading range on Monday pushing past resistance of 0.6390 (1.5650) against the Euro (EUR). Trading Tuesday above 0.6400 it looks to bounce back at 2017 levels of 0.6535 (1.5300).

Exchange Rates

AUDEUR 

Current Level: 0.6389

Support: 0.6330

Resistance:0.6402

Last Week’s Range: 0.6333 – 0.6400

EURAUD

Current Level:  1.5652

Support: 1.5620

Resistance: 1.5800

Last Week’s Range:  1.5625 – 1.5791

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian Dollar (AUD) against the EUR this week has remained within a tight range. Trading between 0.6350 (1.5750) and 0.6390 (1.5645) nothing of note has been published to create a breakout through the range. Next week look for possible downside pressure if we continue to see a weaker AUD.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6356   EURAUD 1.5734

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6333 – 0.6393   EURAUD 1.5642 – 1.5791

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD continues to slide against the EUR, dropping from a high of 0.6497 last Thursday to 0.6353 this morning. With little expected from the RBA tomorrow to bolster the AUD we expect the gradual drift lower for the AUD.  Especially if the EUR can hold to lower declines against the USD strength in comparison to the AUD.

Exchange Rates

AUDEUR

Current Level: 0.6359

Support: 0.6330

Resistance: 0.6500

Last Week’s Range: 0.6348 – 0.6552

EURAUD

Current Level: 1.5725

Support: 1.5384

Resistance:  1.5767

Last Week’s Range: 1.5263 – 1.5754

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD slid lower yesterday after the lower than expected CPI data dropping from 0.6531 to 0.6484 where it is currently trading. Eurozone data continues to be supportive of the EUR but with the RBA rate meeting next week, current ranges should hold until next Tuesday.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6484   EURAUD 1.5424

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6454 – 0.6552   EURAUD 1.5263 – 1.5494

View AUDEUR charts

Choppy trading on this AUD/EUR cross with swings between 0.6454 and 0.6546 over the last two days. It is now back around the 0.6477 level but after ECB head Draghi’s comments on EUR interest rates remaining unchanged for most of this year we favour more downside for the Aussie over the short term…look for consolidation at current levels heading into next week’s CPI data mid-week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6471   EURAUD 1.5452

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6454 – 0.6549   EURAUD 1.5269 – 1.5494

View AUDEUR charts

Although relatively flat on this cross the AUD is marginally stronger at 0.6538. Aussie data remains supportive, but news on this AUD/EUR cross is all around the ECB meeting on Thursday. Look for current levels to hold ahead of Thursday. German politics may also be factor later in the week.

Exchange Rates

AUD/EUR

Current Level: 0.6531

Support: 0.6386

Resistance: 0.6600

Last Week’s Range: 0.6483 – 0.6550

EUR/AUD

Current Level: 1.5311

Support: 1.5151

Resistance: 1.5657

Last Week’s Range: 1.5268 – 1.5425

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD has dropped on this cross as EUR gains against the USD outstrip AUD/USD strength. After a high of 0.6562 on Friday the AUD is now trading down at 0.6495, but with Aussie data expected to be supported this week we look for move back to 0.6550 and above later this week.

Exchange Rates

AUD/EUR

Current Level: 0.6494

Support: 0.6386

Resistance: 0.6600

Last Week’s Range: 0.6476 – 0.6598

EUR/AUD

Current Level: 1.5400

Support: 1.5151

Resistance: 1.5657

Last Week’s Range: 1.5156 – 1.5442

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD continues to track higher on this cross, after starting the week at 0.6519 is has made a high of 0.6598 after yesterday’s surge in retail sales, the AUD has now weakened slightly on this cross as the hawkish ECB minutes saw EUR buying to take this cross back to 0.6548. Australian labour data next will create further opportunity and we look for this cross to push over 0.6600 mid next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is:AUDEUR 0.6545   EURAUD 1.5277

The interbank range this week has been:AUDEUR 0.6496 – 0.6598   EURAUD 1.5156 – 1.5393

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued to build on earlier gains against the EUR, now trading around 0.6561 up from 0.6496 seen last Friday. Commodity strength continues to underpin AUD performance …we favour the AUD on this cross and look for a move on the 0.6580 level over the week.

Exchange Rates

AUDEUR

Current Level: 0.6561

Support: 0.6315

Resistance: 0.6600

Last Week’s Range: 0.6481 – 0.6559

EURAUD

Current Level: 1.5242

Support: 1.5151

Resistance: 1.5835 

Last Week’s Range: 1.5246 – 1.5430

View AUDEUR charts

We have seen some choppy price action for the AUD/EUR pair over the past week or so, but with little overall direction. Dips toward the 0.6480 area are finding solid support while topside gains have been limited to the 0.6535 area. The Euro has been supported by decent economic data, while the AUD has been helped by broadly stronger commodities. Ultimately, we suspect the pair will break higher, but for now it seem content to bounce around the 0.6500 level. As such we favour buying into dips over the coming week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6516   EURAUD 1.5348

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6481 – 0.6535   EURAUD 1.5305 – 1.5430

View AUDEUR charts

There has been little overall direction in this pair for much of the past week. Prices continue to range around the 0.6390 area and this is likely to continue as we await the ECB rate meeting later in the week. Longer term we favour the Euro (EUR) as improving economic fundamentals should support the single currency. But looking shorter term, Australian employment data on Thursday could easily provide a temporary boost for the Australian dollar (AUD).

Exchange Rates

AUDEUR

Current Level: 0.6392

Support: 0.6350      

Resistance: 0.6460

Last week’s range: 0.6373 – 0.6453

EURAUD

Current Level: 1.5645

Support: 1.5480  

Resistance: 1.5750

Last week’s range: 1.5496 – 1.5692

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD continues to struggle on this cross , is now at 0.6377 after a 22 month low at 0.6342 last Friday, not helped by poor Aussie data incomparasion to some better figures emerging from Europe…tonights US data will affect this cross as the AUD should lose more ground against the USD than the EUR on a good figure tonight…we look for more AUD downside on this pair next week.

Exchange Rates

Support: 0.6315 (1.5835)      

Resistance: 0.6600 (1.5151)

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD is at a 20 month low on this cross at 0.6347 as the EUR is spurred by better data and the chance that a Brexit deal may get done sooner rather than later…Aussie data although picking up still has away to go before the AUD recovers on this cross….Aussie politics are not helping….should hold above 0.6315 support heading into next week.

Exchange Rates

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6348     EURAUD 1.5753

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6348-0.6439     EURAUD 1.5753-1.5530

View AUDEUR charts

With the AUD/EUR now around 0.6422, this cross continues to see the Australian dollar (AUD) weaken. It has managed to hold over the 0.6410 level but not with much conviction…the German coalition problems have given the AUD some lift, but we look for another test of 0.6410 later in the week.

Exchange Rates: 

AUD/EUR

Current Level: 0.6424

Support: 0.6410

Resistance: 0.6600

Last week’s range: 0.6388 – 0.6545

EUR/AUD

Current Level: 1.5566

Support: 1.5600

Resistance: 1.5151

Last week’s range: 1.5280 – 1.5654

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar (AUD) has not enjoyed a good week against the Euro (EUR), slipping from highs around 0.6581 on Monday to the current level at 0.6432. The AUD/EUR has improved slightly after a 0.6408 low two days ago after better Australian data jobs yesterday. Look for consolidation at current levels going into next week, if the AUD can hold above the 0.6410 mark a rally back to the 0.6500/20 region is possible.

Exchange Rates: 

The current interbank interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6431     EURAUD 1.5549

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6408 – 0.6605     EURAUD 1.5140 – 1.5606

View AUDEUR charts

With the better economic news the EUR has strengthened on this cross, now at 0.6535 as the AUD has softened on the weaker China data …immediate support is at 0.6529 then 0.6500.

Exchange Rates: 

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6536	0.6500	0.6760	0.6524 – 0.6630
EURO/AUD	1.5300	1.4792	1.5385	1.5083 – 1.5328

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The Australian dollar (AUD) is now around 0.6600 against the Euro (EUR) after a 0.6631 high earlier in the week. Despite better Eurozone inflation/growth data overnight we still favour the AUD on this cross and look for another test of 0.6650 early next week. Support at 0.6582 should hold overnight.

Exchange Rates: 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6596      EURAUD 1.5162

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6576 – 0.6630      EURAUD 1.5083 – 1.5207

View AUDEUR charts

The stronger Australian dollar is now at 0.6620 and consolidation at this level would see a move to immediate resistance at 0.6650. Support at 0.6582 not likely to be tested as long as commodities stay firm.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6620	0.6550	0.6760	0.6565 – 0.6627
EURO/AUD	1.5107	1.4792	1.5267	1.5089 – 1.5233

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Currently at 0.6591 after a choppy week, more pressure on the EUR should see the AUD test initial resistance at 0.6630 next week, but US jobs data presents event risk for both currencies.

The current interbank midrate is:

AUDEUR 0.6590

EURAUD 1.5176

 

The interbank range this week has been:

AUDEUR 0.6556 – 0.6627

EURAUD 1.5089 – 1.5253

View AUDEUR charts

Direction remains unclear on this cross although Spanish concerns have seen the AUD strengthen marginally to 0.6664, a push onto 0.6700 is possible over the next few days.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6676	0.6590	0.6760	0.6622 – 0.6706
EURO/AUD	1.4980	1.4792	1.5174	1.4913 – 1.5102

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The AUD has had a better start to the week on this cross, now at 0.6701 but given the current risk sentiment unlikely to test 0.6760 in the next couple of days…look for consolidation at current levels.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6696	0.6590	0.6760	0.6620 – 0.6759
EURO/AUD	1.4934	1.4792	1.5174	1.4796 – 1.5107

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The Australian dollar has pulled back to 0.6632 currently and looks to test 0.6590 support next week. Resistance at 0.6760 now looks far away.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6629    EURAUD 1.5085

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6620 – 0.6759    EURAUD 1.4796 – 1.5107

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD no around 0.6710, still within the existing 0.6650-0.6726 range, AUD data over the week has been good and the current trend is AUD positive. The high for the week has been 0.6751, look for this to be revisited next week.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6710    EURAUD 1.4904

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6690 – 0.6750    EURAUD 1.4814 – 1.4949

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar is lower at 0.6695 vs the Euro, but still within the existing range.  AUD weakness has been countered by the ECB comments on the strength of the EUR. We expect the 0.6650-0.6726 current range to hold ahead of the Aussie jobs data on Thursday.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6695	0.6590	0.6840	0.6669 – 0.6739
EURO/AUD	1.4936	1.4620	1.5174	1.4838 – 1.4995

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Still within the old 0.6650-0.6726 range, now at 0.6714 after a high of 0.6741 earlier in the week…the ECB has helped the EUR on this cross but still no clear direction …any increase in Korean tensions will affect the AUD more than the EUR.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6701    EURAUD 1.4923

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6669 – 0.6739    EURAUD 1.4838 – 1.4995

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD at 0.6685 trading in a 0.6650-0.6726 range over the last 4 days, solid AUD data over the next few days may help with a push back over 0.6700 but ECB has the power to surprise at Thursday’s meeting…range should hold for the next few days.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6684	0.6590	0.6840	0.6591 – 0.6710
EURO/AUD	1.4962	1.4620	1.5174	1.4903 – 1.5172

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The AUD is at 0.6680 on this cross, up from 0.6591 earlier in the week. Better Eurozone  economic data favours the EUR on this cross and we look for another push to 0.6600 levels next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6675    EURAUD 1.4981

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6591 – 0.6718    EURAUD 1.4886 – 1.5172

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD has drifted lower this week on the stronger EUR now at 0.6695 and on any ECB tightening talk tonight would see support at 0.6660 threatened.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6693    EURAUD 1.4940

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6673 – 0.6759    EURAUD 1.4796 – 1.4987

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar is easier on this cross as the Euro as strengthened against the USD. It is now around 0.6724 and should trade in the 0.6685-06750 range over the next few days.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6723	0.6660	0.6840	0.6660 – 0.6786
EURO/AUD	1.4874	1.4620	1.5015	1.4737 – 1.5014

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The ECB more dovish comments have seen the AUD rally to 6788 two days ago, has weakened a little overnight to 0.6730 but direction is unclear…should hold around current levels into next week but we favour a slide in the AUD back to towards the 0.6660 level..
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6729    EURAUD 1.4861

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6658 – 0.6786    EURAUD 1.4737 – 1.5021

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The Australian dollar is back at similar levels to last weeks close …now at 0.6680 but good EUR data could push the AUD back on this cross to 0.6650/56.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6679	0.6615	0.6840	0.6658 – 0.6744
EURO/AUD	1.4971	1.4620	1.5117	1.4829 – 1.5021

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The Australian dollar has weakened on this cross, more affected by the safe-haven flows, now at 0.6685 after 0.6746 earlier in the week. Immediate support is 0.6656 and should hold this level heading to next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6665    EURAUD 1.5004

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6663 – 0.6746    EURAUD 1.4823 – 1.5009

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The Australian dollar is marking time on this cross, now at 0.6706 but it looks as if it will weaken further and head back to the 0.6685 level over the next few days.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6701	0.6615	0.6840	0.6683 – 0.6794
EURO/AUD	1.4924	1.4620	1.5117	1.4718 – 1.4963

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The Australian dollar has gradually weakened against the Euro over the week. It is currently at 0.6702 after 0.6815 on Monday. The EUR should continue its grind higher against the AUD and we look for a target of 0.6656 next week. This would provide a good opportunity for those looking to transfer EUR to AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6697    EURAUD 1.4932

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6683 – 0.6826    EURAUD 1.4650 – 1.4963

View AUDEUR charts

The Euro staged a decent recovery against the Australian dollar in the second half of last week. The pair had previously traded to a high of 0.6929 (low of 1.4433), but by the end of the week a resurgent EUR had driven the cross back to support around 0.6770 (resistance around 1.4771). The market currently trades around 0.6810 (1.4684) as it awaits the key data release of the week in tomorrow Australian inflation figure. The data outcome may well dictate direction over the coming days. The market is expecting a quarterly inflation outcome of 0.4%.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6809	0.6760	0.6840	0.6768 – 0.6929
EURO/AUD	1.4687	1.4620	1.4793	1.4433 – 1.4776

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For much of the week the Australian dollar significantly outperformed the Euro, driving the pair to highs of 0.6929 (lows of 1.4433) yesterday afternoon. That high was made in the immediate aftermath of the strong Australian employment report, but since then the EUR has managed to claw back some the lost ground to the AUD. The trigger for the EUR recovery was last night’s ECB meeting where, despite his best attempts, President Draghi couldn’t stop the Euro from reacting to the improving economic outlook. Immediate support comes in around 0.6825 and as long as the market holds above that level, the focus remains on the topside and further gains. A break below that support level however, may well signal a much bigger correct lower is developing.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6836    EURAUD 1.4631

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6768 – 0.6929    EURAUD 1.4433 – 1.4776

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies last week and as such its gains against the Euro should be no major surprise. That being said, gains for the pair stalled at the 0.6840 level which marks the high from back on 20th June. After two failed attempts at that level we have seen the cross drift a touch lower overnight to now trade at 0.6790. This week should be a big one with plenty of potential volatility. From Australia we have the RBA minutes this afternoon the employment data on Thursday. While from Europe we have the ECB meeting on Thursday night to digest.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6785	0.6760	0.6840	0.6651 – 0.6837
EURO/AUD	1.4738	1.4620	1.4793	1.4627 – 1.5035

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The Australian dollar has had a good week making significant gains across the board. The EUR was matching those gains early in the week, but over the past 36 hours EUR selling has seen the cross rate surge. Once the pair broke above minor resistance around 0.6690 it been largely one way traffic to the topside. Last night it traded to a high of 0.6799 and it’s currently consolidating not far below that level. For the time being the risks are skewed to further gains with the target been a test of 0.6840.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6782    EURAUD 1.4746

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6634 – 0.6799    EURAUD 1.4707 – 1.5074

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar has been losing ground to a resurgent Euro over the past few weeks. It’s been a messy sort of decline but the trend remains intact for the time being. It would take a move above 0.6705 to bring the downtrend into question. If that level was overcome the focus would turn to 0.6760. On the downside there is minor support around 0.6635 and then again at 0.6570.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6673	0.6570	0.6760	0.6634 – 0.6754
EURO/AUD	1.4985	1.4793	1.5221	1.4807 – 1.5074

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The Australian dollar has weakened vs the Euro. Now at 0.6645 after the RBA no change statement, support at 0.6600 may be tested next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6644    EURAUD 1.5051

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6634 – 0.6754    EURAUD 1.4807 – 1.5074

View AUDEUR charts

The AUD continues to make ground on this cross, is now around 0.6751 and is gradually grinding higher, providing no RBA surprises today , look for a move towards the 0.6800+ level over the week.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6735	0.6700	0.6900	0.6668 – 0.6810
EURO/AUD	1.4848	1.4493	1.4925	1.4683 – 1.4996

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Choppy trading on this pair, has come from 0.6838 last week to 0.6787 currently , looks to be slightly on the back foot against the EUR, but look for a move back towards 0.6810/20 over the coming few days.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6785	0.6740	0.6900	0.6750 – 0.6836
EURO/AUD	1.4739	1.4493	1.4837	1.4629 – 1.4815

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Now at 0.6803 the Australian dollar looks on-course to push to 0.6850 Euro later in the week as the EUR marks time. The better Aussie data has provided good AUD rally since the beginning of June and it should continue to support in the near term.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6803	0.6700	0.6900	0.6713 – 0.6821
EURO/AUD	1.4699	1.4493	1.4925	1.4661 – 1.4896

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Solid gains for the AUD on this cross now at 0.6814 up from 0.6708 at the start of the week..next stop looks to be 0.6900 last seen a over a month ago…
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6804    EURAUD 1.4697

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6708 – 0.6816    EURAUD 1.4671 – 1.4908

View AUDEUR charts

The Australian dollar continues to remain strong on this cross, now at 0.6755 with immediate resistance at 0.6770. That level may well be seen after Thursday’s FOMC is out of the way.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6751	0.6700	0.6770	0.6625 – 0.6755
EURO/AUD	1.4812	1.4771	1.4925	1.4804 – 1.5095

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The AUD has strengthened on this cross, now at 0.6702 and if the ECB is unchanged tonight a move towards 0.6750 is likely heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6699    EURAUD 1.4928

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6570 – 0.6745    EURAUD 1.4827 – 1.5220

View AUDEUR charts

Now at 0.6622 after a low of 0.6572 last Friday, poor Aussie data will undermine AUD rallies but Thursday’s ECB meeting is a market mover….a maintenance of the status quo by the ECB will help the AUD but tomorrow’s Aussie GDP if poor will hamstring further AUD advances.

	Current Level	Support	Resistance	Last week’s range
AUD/EURO	0.6624	0.6540	0.6700	0.6567 – 0.6698
EURO/AUD	1.5096	1.4925	1.5291	1.4930 – 1.5227